” Are we ready to go to another war in Sulu?”
by Patricio Mangubat (newphilrevolution.blogspot.com)
A brewing revolt in the South
While we are so engrossed with the food crisis, a revolution is a-brewing in Mindanao.
Yesterday, a band of Islamic militants staged a rally in Sulu, one of the Southernmost islands of the Philippines. The rallyists called for independence from Manila, the seat of power. Police were unable to resist the militants, who carry long knives tucked in their waists.
A mockery of Arroyo
Obviously, this is a mockery of the administration of Mrs. Arroyo. One, it was a defiant act of rebellion. That action was a direct contravention of existing Philippine laws. The rallyists should have been arrested for inciting to rebellion and/or secession since they are calling for independence of Sulu. Police were helpless in arresting the militants, calling the incident just a way to let off steam.
Was that just a way to let off steam? No.
That incident was plain and simple rebellion. If it happened here in Manila, the rallyists could have been arrested, even mauled by police. But no. That one occurred in Mindanao, and our cops are afraid shitless.
Bigger than a rally
Second, that act shows that Islamist are preparing for something bigger than a call for independence. It’s just a warning to Manila that Tausugs are again ready to go to war against them. Is Manila ready for war?
Obviously, Manila is ill prepared for another war in the South. That might cause Mrs. Arroyo’s quick downfall. Imagine a scenario where hundreds if not thousands of troops being killed in Sulu. Imagine another conflagration similar to the one which happened in the 1970’s where Marcos sent his troops to suicide missions in Mindanao.
Government peace panel adviser Jesus Dureza said it might take a while to implement the remaining unmet provisions of the MNLF peace pact. What Dureza meant is this–Manila is not that serious in really institutionalizing peace in Mindanao.
Talks are rife that former MNLF chairman Nur Misuari will join the MNLF panel in OIC talks in Jeddah. Will it appease the Tausugs? No. Remember that only a few weeks ago, Nur has been replaced by a government factotum in the person of Ampatuan. Ampatuan has zero credibility among his people. The entire MNLF Central Committee does not have the personality to influence the remaining MNLF fighters toe the government line.
What about the MILF? Reports say, the biggest Bangsamoro group is split into different factions, due to the inability of MILF Chairman Al Haj Murad to maintain organizational cohesion. Many young MILF fighters vowed not to follow Murad should he proceed with peace talks with Manila. Reports say as many as 3,000 young fighters will continue waging war with Manila even if both sides sign a peace pact.
Revolt could break Gloria’s backbone
A revolution in Mindanao could take its toll on this administration, both politically and economically. It could break the backbone of Mrs. Arroyo who cling to power in the barest of threads. Remember that her troops have suffered innumerable defeats in the battlefield against Muslim fighters in the South. The once-feared Marines have been decimated in that area. If war breaks out, how will government explain the expected deaths and casualties of government troops there? How will it cope with the exodus of thousands of families? Is government logistically prepared to face this eventuality?
Effects in the regional anti-terror campaign
How will events happening in Mindanao impact on the regional anti-terror campaign? Reports on the ground show that more and more Bangsamoros are being influenced by radical Islamist thinking. A report by Maria Resa of ABS-CBN revealed that a new group has been formed which diametrically pursues the Jemaah Islamiya philosophy, that is, the creation of a Pan Islamic Sultanate.
This new group, allegedly being funded by the global Islamist organisation Al-Qaeda, could be funding the escalation of hostilities in the South. Remember that anti-terror groups have been unable to break the financial backbone of JI and it continues to spread its tentacles in the region. Left unattended, this new group could pose a serious security threat in the region, more dangerous and lethal than its predecessors.
US intervention in Bangsamoro affairs
A few months back, US Ambassador Kristie Kenney visited the main MILF camp in Mindanao. This is the first time that a representative of the US government came to visit the MILF. Analysts say this could lead the way for the de-listing of the MILF as a terrorist organisation. Some analysts however say that it was a blatant “in-your-face” act by the US against Gloria, which, fortunately, did not result to anything serious other than a note verbale.
What that visit meant was very simple–it shows that the US is very serious in addressing the root causes of rebellion in Mindanao. It wants to participate as a third party mediator. Malaysia has been a long-time participant in the talks. Yet, nothing substantial has resulted so far with Malaysia at the helm of the talks.
The US has a substantial strategic defense interest in Mindanao. One, Mindanao has been known as a safe haven for terrorists. Two, most of the suicide bombers who concocted the 9/11 attacks and the World Trade Center bombings came from Mindanao prior to planing to the mainland. And three, in the interest of regional security, Mindanao is placed very high in the agenda of the US State department since most areas being controlled by the MILF provide training to would-be JI fighters in the region. The Philippines ranks as the training and r&r (rest and recreation) area of the JI, followed by Malaysia and Indonesia as recruitment centers and Singapore as the financial hub.
A war in the South, especially in Sulu, would destroy all institutional efforts being implemented there by regional de-escalation experts. It could likewise, provide JI an opportunity to train their fighters in actual combat.
Net–a war in Mindanao could spark a regional war between the JI and anti-terror troops. It could endanger regional security. Is the region prepared to sacrifice its security because of Arroyo’s inability to talk peace with the Bangsamoro?
April 20th, 2008 @ Ricky Rivera
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