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Though they have’nt confirmed it yet, speculations abound that the MILF is behind the shooting of the Hercules C-130 plane. After initially accusing the MILF of complicity, the AFP now says they are discounting the possibility of a terrorist attack. However, a thorough probe would reveal that before the C-130 crashed into the waters of Davao Gulf, smoke bellowed from its body, signifying that it was hit by something. Many say, the lightning that the locals saw was a missile hitting the body of the C-130 plane. 

This early, the AFP particularly the Air Force is enforcing a news blackout on this incident, to avoid further speculation. However, sources from the retrieval team says there’s a huge hole in the plane, bolstering suspicions of a terrorist attack. Its known within the intelligence community that there are groups of MILF rebels based in Davao City. There are also some units of the Jemaah Islamiyah and the rogue Abu Sayyaf Group in Davao. There is a strong possibility that this crash could be the handiwork of these groups out to sabotage the peace process in Mindanao.

If this is true, then, we have a very serious situation at hand because apparently, these rebels have modern, sophisticated arms including possibly a surface-to-air missile.

Seems that government is on an all-out propaganda offensive to justify its obvious intention of not going back to the peace table. This early, DILG Secretary Ronnie Puno is on the propaganda war path, telling the MILF to police its ranks while government unleash its dogs of war. Puno is ostensibly parroting the line of government and some senators saying that government should not pursue peace talks or probably delay it and instead run after the rogue elements of the MILF.

This is pure and simple double-talking…again. Government tries to wiggle its way out of the legal and constitutional mess that’s the MOA. Arroyo and her minions are telling us that they’re not ready to talk peace unless the MILF gives up their arms and like lambs, meekly and humbly ask that they’ll be given the BJE! Are they serious? Obviously these Moro rebels will never do that! They already told government what they want–talk peace by honoring the MOA. The MOA is the product of years of negotiations. By dilly-dallying and doing all these dilatory tactics will not help in the restoration of peace and order in the South. Government should demonstrate its honesty and seriousness in these peace talks. Same as with the MILF. These Moro fighters should also take a breather and try to allow their representatives to talk peace with the GRP. If they’re too heated and too angry about what happened, then, definitely, these peace talks would amount to nothing!

A C-130 military cargo plane just crashed a few nautical miles off the coast of Davao City. As of presstime, two bodies have already been recovered. Reports say both the pilot and the co-pilot perished in the crash. The plane was allegedly going to Iloilo when it was struck by lightning. 

It’s weird is’nt? This is the first time that I heard a big jumbo airplane such as this one would actually be struck by lightning. Were there any other instance in the past where a cargo plane was hit by lightning? Not that I know of. Eye witnesses, fishermen who were at the Davao Gulf swear by this.

I, however, have this uncanny feeling that what they saw as “lightning” was actually a missile fired at the airplane. A thorough probe should be done by the Air Force to see what caused the crash. Suspicions that a surface-to-air missile might have struck the plane, causing it to crash.

Barack Obama just chose Senator Joe Biden as his official running mate. Biden, a veteran legislator, is being packaged as a foreign policy expert. He and Obama have been buddies in the US Senate foreign policy committee. Obama supporters expect him to provide experience and learned guidance to the young Democratic presidential contender.

Some analysts are criticizing Obama for picking Biden, but for me, Biden is the most logical choice for Barack. Biden is an idealist and what’s more, he’s a dedicated public servant with a clean record and a doer. He’s expected to provide Obama with learned counselling whenever the president needs him. This early, I expect them to be a fantastic team.

Meanwhile, talks abound that Republican presidential bet John McCain will pick Liebberman as his running mate. If McCain does that, he’ll further erode the people’s confidence on him as president. McCain should pick a younger vice president, to counteract criticisms that he’s too old. The choice however, according to US analysts, is between Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney. Between the two, Huckabee seems to be the likely candidate for McCain.

What do you think? September is just around the corner and the Republicans should act fast to erode the huge margin that the Obama campaign has already established.

As the Supreme Court reviews the Memorandum of Agreement, fighting between Moro Islamic Liberation Front forces and Philippine troops continue. Philippine Air Force Chief Lt. General Pedrito Cadugdog said they are ready for an escalation of the war. For its part, rebel forces also declared that they are ready for war. Recently, the National Democratic Front (NDF) said they’ll be supporting the MILF in its fight against government forces. So, this is becoming a very serious civil war, which could spillover other parts of the country, given the fact that the CPP-NPA-NDF has already involved themselves into the war.

And it seems that peace is slowly dissipating, as both the GRP and MILF sides continue stone-walling, with the GRP telling the MILF that it would not sign the agreement under its present form, indicating that it wants a re-negotiation. While on the part of the MILF, it believes the present MOA is the best option and will not go to the peace table for another round of talks. 

Such a situation may, indeed, lead to a full-scale war, which as what New Philippine Revolution wrote could turn into a very nasty one, given that the conflict has a wider area of coverage than Erap’s anti-Muslim war back in 2000. What we must avoid is a further escalation which could turn the entire Mindanao into a magnet for external participation of regional terror groups. This early, there are signs of bombings in key cities, such as Zamboanga, which could be the handiwork of the Jemaah Islamiya.

War is a riskier proposition than peace

There are two things why I’m campaigning to oppose the Mindanao War. First, this war would just weaken the entire Philippine economy, leading to more chaos and more misery for the people. It’s mistaken to think that this will just be isolated or contained in Mindanao. History has shown that a war in Mindanao always impact on the national economy. It destroyed the economy during the time of strongman Marcos and not even martial rule failed to quell the Bangsamoro rebellion. If Marcos fell to power due to a weakened Philippine state caused by the all-out war policy in Mindanao, Arroyo is sure to suffer a worse fate than him. And Arroyo is no Marcos.

And second, war will open the floodgates of more terrorist actions in that region and even spillover the rest of the country. Obviously, the tactic of hawks in Malacanang is simple–play wag the dog to neutralize public outrage against rising oil and food prices, then, escalate the conflict to flush out hard-core independence supporters within the MILF. Military strategists and even government are trying to split the MILF under the presumption that a splintered MILF would be weaker than its present state.

Malacanang is foolish if they think they

This explains why war-mongers from both the administration and opposition are calling for the prosecution of MILF Commanders Bravo and Umbra Kato. These two are strong supporters of the Bangsamoro independence movement. They are serious contenders to the post being held now by MILF Chairman Al Haj Murad, who’s being perceived now as a compromiser and a strong ally or supporter of the Arroyo peace overtures. If the MILF splits, the military and government forces hope to raze the MILF camps to the ground. A military coup d’grace, yes, but, as history has shown, it would likewise fail to permanently resolve the Bangsamoro Question. Why?

Should a split occur, it would just affect the top leadership of the MILF, but not the ground forces. Murad will just be isolated. The rest of the ground forces will continue the fight under a different or separate setup from the MILF top command. Their ranks will surely swell by the thousands since as things stand today, they have assumed a higher moral ground than Murad.

The failure of Murad to conclude a peace agreement with the government is a sure sign for the Bangsamoro to really go all-out for war. Should Murad lose credibility, he risks losing power in the MILF. If he loses power, government and even the US government risks losing an ally within the ranks of the secessionist group. If they lose Murad, there is no more avenue for talks. It would permanently end all peace talks because surely, there’s no one in the new MILF group who’ll be willing to talk peace with the government.

If the government succeeds in splitting the MILF, its ground forces will just revert from a regular army formation (which is easier to control) to a guerilla setup. A guerilla war is more costly for government and the military than fighting a regular army. Yes, probably, the military will succeed in occupying rebel camps. That’s good for propaganda. But, ultimately, it stands to lose the entire war because the AFP is still not capable of defeating guerilla forces. Look at the way they conducted themselves against the NPAs. 

A guerilla war in Mindanao will lead to the humiliating defeat of the Philippine government. 

As I’ve written in previous posts, this MOA is the only acceptable accord between the GRP and the MILF. Should this fail and government continue its war plan and strategy of not signing the MOA on ancestral domain, it lay open for the Bangsamoro the possibility of just waging war to claim what they think is rightfully theirs. If this happens, expect a full-scale and long-drawn out war. A long war would drain government resources and paralyze the entire Mindanao economy. A paralyzed Mindanao economy would surely affect the national economy, thereby, erasing all economic gains we already got since 2001.

Should the Mindanao conflict turn into a full-scale war, it risks turning the entire Mindanao into a veritable regional flashpoint. A flashpoint scenario is what the US is trying to avoid because it would attract terrorist groups from all over the Asia-Pacific region, becoming a magnet for more terror attacks. This early, the MILF is perceiving this as a war of attrition and a moral war since they see themselves as having been double talked by government in the peace talks. A moral war is more dangerous than any war because it risks attracting sympathizers from within and from outside Mindanao. 

If this war turns into a war of independence, that would be a signal for Jemaah Islamiya fighters to lend support. If they give support, that would eventually turn Mindanao into a regional battlefield, serving as a magnet for terrorist fighters from all over the Asia-Pacific region. What Southern Thailand fighters failed to accomplish, the Bangsamoro fighters are sure and expected to succeed.

It

We risk disruption of thousands of lives there. We are sure to lose more lives from this war, possibly more than what we lost during the Bangsamoro rebellion of the 70’s.

We also risk fragmenting the entire AFP. This early, demoralization has crept in the military ranks, as casualties mount, as senior and junior officers lose their lives and as more soldiers see their comrades fall by the hundreds. 

And we are seeing a human catastrophe in the making. Government is not capable of solving a swelling number of displaced families. War will surely drain government resources. Right now, we are seeing a 15 billion budget deficit. This will definitely rise as government devote its resources in Mindanao. How much does war cost? In the time of Erap, government spent 1 billion everyday. Do we have enough resources to sustain an all-out war? Do we have the money to fund an anti-guerilla war?

In this war, as I’ve said in previous entries, the entire Filipino People is sure to lose everything.

Muslim legislator Mujiv Hataman lambasted his fellow Muslims for alleged human rights violations. He says that the MILF rebels are violating the Islamic Laws on War. I just wonder if Hataman investigated these incidents prior to releasing this statement. 

Is he sure that the MILF really torched those houses? Is he sure that MILF rebels killed those innocent civilians?

As of late, there are already 39 killed, most of whom are civilians. A high-ranking military officer has been killed. While there has been no reports of serious casualties from the MILF ranks.

This has got to stop. 

We should militate against the war. This war will definitely affect us in many ways.

Unscrupulous traders might use this to further jack up their prices. If you have’nt notice, prices of rice have reached 40 plus pesos for every kilo. Prices of basic commodities have also risen while gasoline prices remained the same despite lowered global fuel prices. 

And government is doing nothing.

 Sa paggunita ng pagkakapaslang ng dating Senator Ninoy  Aquino sa 21 Agosto, maglulunsad ng isang “cultural show”  ang civil society. Ang nasabing concert, na lalakuhan ng  mahigit 50 bandang Pinoy, ay isang aktibidad na dapat  lamang lahukan ng lahat, sapagkat ito’y isang paraan upang  maipakita natin ang ating pagka disgusto sa kasalukuyang  kalagayan ng ating Inang Bayan.

Tunay nga, na ilang taon na rin ang nakalipas, (mahigit 25 na nga ba?) nang paslangin ng mga ahente ng rehimeng Marcos ang nagbabalik sanang senator Aquino. Matapos na mabasa ng kanyang dugo ang tarmac ng airport, tatlong taon ang lumipas bago tuluyang nagapi ng Sambayanang Pilipino ang diktador na si Macoy. Nanatili ang ningas ng sakripisyo ni Ninoy hanggang sa administrasyon ng kanyang asawa, ngunit, unti-unti itong nawawala sa paglipas ng panahon.

Mayroon pa bang kahulugan sa buhay ng Pinoy ang sakripisyo ni Ninoy? Naaalala pa kaya ng karamihan sa atin kung ano-ano ang mga tunay na kadahilanan bakit pinilit niyang bumalik sa Inang Bayan? Malinaw pa ba ang mga eksenang bumulaga sa atin sa kanyang pagbulagta noon sa tarmac?

Tulad ng nakagawian na, gugunitain ng mga television networks ang mga huling eksenang nilahukan ni Ninoy. Ipakikita duon ang mga kuha sa kanya ng isang batikang cameraman nang siya’y kunin ng mga AVSECOM na mag-ka-cut dun naman sa kuhang nakabulagta na siya’t walang buhay sa tarmac. Kung makapagsasalita lamang si Ninoy mula sa langit, ito kaya ang nais niyang paggunita sa kanya?

Sumigaw ka na ba sa lansangang tulad niya?

Mas nanaisin siguro ni Ninoy na ipakita ang naging bunga ng kanyang sakripisyo. Mas maganda siguro kung balikan natin ang mga eksenang kung saan halos isang milyong Pinoy ang nagpunta sa EDSA pagkatapos ng tatlong taon, para kilalanin ang kanyang sakripisyo.

Maganda sigurong ipakita na umusbong ang Bagong Pinoy mula sa dugong ibinuwis ni Ninoy at iba pang mga bayaning Bayan maitaguyod lamang ang demokrasya sa ating bayan.

Sa 21 Agosto, gugunitain sa isang concert ng mga banda ang pagkamatay ni Ninoy. Siguro, liban sa pagsasayang kultural, huwag sanang kalimutan ng mga organizers ang pagpapaliwanag sa kahalagahan ng sakripisyo ni Ninoy.

Nabinyagan sila sa Mendiola. Ikaw? Kelan ka?

Namulat tayo dahil kay Ninoy at sa mga bayani ng bayan na ibinuwis ang kanilang buhay alang-alang sa kalayaan.

Nagising tayo dahil kay Ninoy at sa mga bayani ng bayan na nakibaka sa larangang giyera alang-alang sa kapayapaan.

Nag-alsa tayo dahil kay Ninoy at sa mga bayani ng bayan na isinakripisyo ang kanilang kinabukasan upang manumbalik ang katarungan.

Nakaw dito, nakaw dun. Hanggang kailan ka papayag nakawan?

Ngayong nagsusumidhi ang kabulukan, ang korupsyon, ang kawalang hiyaan ng ating mga tinatawag na lider ng bayan,

Ngayong binubusabos tayo ng mga mandaraya dahilan sa ating kawalang ganang kumilos.

Ngayong ninanakawan tayo ng harap-harapan ng mga nagpapakilalang lider ng bayan,

Ngayong tila pinapatay tayo dahil sa mga polisiyang maka-sarili ng mga galamay ni Gloria, kailangan pa ba natin ng isang Ninoy para tayo mamulat?

Kailangan pa ba ng ilang giyerang pamumunuan ng mga bayani ng bayan para makamit ang kapayapaan?

Kailangan pa ba ng isang Ninoy upang maharap natin ang maladambuhalang kampon ng demonyo sa pangunguna ng isang demonyitang sanggol para sa panunumbalik ng katarungan?

Hindi na. Sapat na ang kamulatan natin sa mga kaganapan, sa ating nadadanasang hirap bunsod ng katiwalian, kabastusan, at kawalang kahiyaan nina Gloria, kanyang pamilya sampu ng kanilang mga galamay, hindi natin kailangan ang isang Ninoy.

Kailangan natin ng isang milyong Ninoy na tatayo, magbubuwis ng kinabukasan at susuong sa bukid ng pakikibaka hindi alang-alang sa kanilang sarili, kundi alang-alang sa kanilang mga anak, mga apo at mga magulang.

Janette Toral, that phenom of a lady who organized the highly successful Top Emerging and Influential Blogs in 2008, says it all too factually–the era of the “personal” bloggers is now gone. The Filipino blogger has now turned more “social”, or that is to say, more sensitive to the needs of their audiences. Last year, those who emerged on top of the blogging heap wrote more about themselves, their experiences and what-have-you. Now, Pinoy bloggers became more sensitive, or the better word is “sensitized”, going beyond discussions about Self, to discussions about “reality” or their philosophical world-view. That is evident with the win of Filipinovoices, a blog by political bloggers. 

Synovate, the world’s leading market research company did a study and found out that more and more Filipinos are beginning to use the internet more often. Most users are online gamers yet an increasing number of people are using the Web to search for information, news and opinions. This validates an earlier Nielsen usage survey which shows that at least 23 million Filipinos go online, with at least 9 million using the web everyday and about 3 million Filipinos maintain blogs or participate in socnets (social networks). This is an encouraging sign that shows Filipino web users are beginning to mature in terms of their approach or views about the Internet. 

This is good news for those who want change in this country. The phenomenal growth in web participation is organic, meaning, there was no “transformative event”  that spurred this thing. Filipinos are slowly realizing the benefits of having a presence in this electronic community. Hence, those who want change can actually use the web as a medium to reach the widest audience possible.

If EDSA dos became a reality thru texting, then, the next EDSA could possibly be realized thru social networks.