Is Gloria leaving in 2010?

Is Philippine president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo leaving in 2010? Many people, especially those in her official family, thinks so. Gloria said so in her SONA (State-of-the Nation Address) speech. But why do majority of Filipinos do not believe her words?

There’s a simple answer–Filipinos don’t trust her. In fact, six out of ten Filipinos distrust Mrs. Arroyo. That’s what numerous credible polls show.

Flashback, Mrs. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s address before the people in a Rizal day speech in Baguio. Arroyo told the crowd that there’s a huge clamor for her to run despite all the polls which showed otherwise. She did ran and won not by the largest of margins but by the most suspicious one.

Now, this one. Has 7 years of being president already satiated her power lust? Or, she’s raring for another 7 years or more?

If the economic condition continues its deterioration, we expect her to say that people are clamoring for continuity, hence, she does not have any choice but to seek for another term. She can do that thru : (a) a declaration of a State of National Emergency or (b) a constitutional change. Many people believe that Gloria will use the MILF-GRP peace pact as a springboard. That route has encountered tremendous opposition before and I don’t think this administration would seriously risk its survival thru this unpopular measure.

What could be a more justifiable reason could be this economic crisis. Should this continue, we may see her declaring a State of Emergency which could prolong all thru 2009, frustrating the ambitions of many politicians who seek the highest post.

This strategy could work given that the present slate of “presidentiables” is perceived to be very thin and weak. Polls show 46 percent of people prefer a Loren-Cheez tandem, followed by a Villar-De Castro one and a Roxas-Pangilinan team. Those early polls try to establish a pattern which could change enroute to 2010.

However, this could also backfire given that at this early, people are being made to choose Gloria alternatives who’s record are far from being favorable. Without other better alternatives, people could lose hope.

Again, I ask, is Gloria really leaving in 2010?