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Five prelates of the monolithic Roman Catholic church issued a statement calling on the people to act against the prevailing order of the times. Iloilo Archbishop and CBCP Head Angel Lagdameo made that call last Tuesday. Aside from merely lambasting the Arroyo administration for its seeming role in the perpetuation of graft and corruption, Lagdameo called upon the `liberators’ of the Motherland to put an end to this cycle of shame and start building a new government. 

Question–is it wrong for the archbishops to do this kind of thing now that there’s a pending bill called “Reproductive Health bill” waiting either the signature of Arroyo or her veto? Some sectors speculate that the RCC is just “muscle flexing”, telling Arroyo that the Church is still a force to reckon with. Showing signs of insecurity? Maybe. Or a reflection of inadequate moral discernment?

It could also be a sign that leading proponents of the RH-bill are winning the debate. Two large religious organisations, the Iglesia Ni Cristo and the Jesus is Lord Movement (JIL) are also working silently behind the corridors of power, lobbying for the passage of this bill. Not to mention the US government, and foreign pro-choice lobbyists exerting tremendous PR pressure for Arroyo to make that historic act.

Though the statement really echoes the sentiments of the majority, few believe that a move to oust Gloria could really muster enough support from a so-called “desensitized” military and a throng of trapos intent on earning millions in 2010. This belief stems from earlier models of change where the people’s movement relied on the security forces of the state to effect leadership change. With an unworthy successor (yet popular one) to Arroyo, few welcome radical change simply because doing the right thing now might further cause damage.

Having said that, I think that proponents of change should simply alter their boxed formula for revolts and entertain the idea that calls for new forces leading the charge. Simply put, newer paradigms do not need a withdrawal of support to effect change. Catalysts for change should disabuse the minds of the people and establish this paradigm that simply calls on a Council of State to administer the affairs of the State during the period of transition. The message should be as simple as: to avoid greater confusion, chaos and violence in 2010, the People’s Movement is asking Gloria Arroyo to step down before the elections and make that sacrifice. With her spotty record, Arroyo should be made to resign immediately to avoid a further slide down south of the economy and political system.

Poor First Gentleman. He’s being accused of trying to talk with Bolante, when it’s his time for rehabilitation. (see this news report). He just visited his cardiologist, the same doctor attending to Bolante. Got the info he needed. Bolante is “on course”.

FG says he’s getting on the right track to recovery. Reason? He’s “following the doctor’s orders”. A message to his bosom buddy Joc-Joc to “heed doctor’s advice” for his speedy recovery? “Stay the course”?

Maybe FG’s worried that there’s a lot of former “friends” now “on the other side of the fence”, having their own “chest pains” and “visiting family and friends” all too suddenly at St. Luke’s. 

Overnight, St. Luke’s became a “family and friends” place. Cool.

So there. Nothing more than rehab. Masyado kayong malisyosong mag-isip!

A few hours ago, First Gentleman Mike Arroyo visited St. Luke’s Medical Center. Why? No one knows, except that some malicious tongues wag that he might have visited his bosom buddy and fellow Rotarian Joc-Joc Bolante. Possible. Why? Discuss Rotarian matters since Bolante has been away for two and a half years?    

So, we’re finished with the first chapter in this political melodrama. Former Agriculture secretary Joc-Joc Bolante is now holed in a hospital, secured and allegedly being “administered” by health professionals. Bolante might be there for a loong time. Plan? Spend time to allow Malacanang media operators to do their thing and “massage” the public. These operators have at least five days to do before the Senators come back from their vacation and re-open the fertilizer fund scam case. For now, Bolante enjoys the luxury of time. His suite is like a war-room, complete with cable TV, telephones and Internet access. 

Strategy? Avoid staying at the Senate holding area and ask for hospital arrest. The Senate is not his comfort zone. He’s vulnerable there. He can’t receive instructions from his “friends”. Besides, the proper forum that he intends to show up is where he’s comfortable at—the Office of the Ombusman. 

The Office of the Ombusman would speed up their investigation, allow Bolante hospital arrest and possibly coming up with a decision that would find reasonable doubt to prosecute Bolante. Bolante will be given a jail term, a short one, and all’s settle and done with. Before Arroyo goes on indefinite sabbatical in 2010, he’ll be given a quiet reprieve and he’s scot-free. What’s a year or two of staying in the Bilibid or at QC jail or even his jail term spent in a hospital? He already suffered two and a half years of incarceration in the States. What’s a year of hospital arrest?

Is this possible? Yes. The only thing that separates Joc-Joc and his handlers from getting what they want is public indignation. Going by their experience with Neri,  a good measure of “pamasko” spread among those who cover and report about this helps a lot in neutralizing any public indignation. Besides, survey says, Filipinos just get angry for three and a half days and afterwards, they just forget about it. Joc-Joc is not a showbiz personality. If he was, then, expect this issue to last even a year, with people talking about this for a looong time. 

But this is politics. And in politics, a week is just too long for anything to happen.

Deputy Ombusman Jose de Jesus promised to complete the preliminary investigation on Joc-Joc Bolante’s case. De Jesus said it took them a while to investigate since the case involves the alleged participation of local executives on 17 regions. The deputy ombusman however, vowed to complete the probe within the prescribed time.

Meanwhile, the attending physician of First Golfer is also the one administering the needs of Bolante right now at St. Luke’s. Coincidental? Or signs of support from the palace? 

So, expect this drama to last 3 months. By that time, January I think, all the conditions would have ripen either on the side of those who want Gloria out or those who want Gloria til 2020.

Pang Famas award

Controversial Agriculture Undersecretary Jocelyn “Joc-Joc” Bolante arrived just past 10:30 pm at the NAIA. Looking older and slimmer, Bolante was on a wheelchair and being secured by what ABS-CBN correspondent Don Tagala said as “uniformed personnel” (which turned out to be Senate security personnel).

Henry Omaga-Diaz of ABS-CBN channel 2 caught Joc-Joc before he went out of the plane and he looks fine. However, when he went out of the tube, he’s already wheel-chair bound. Talk about scripted theatrics. Joc-Joc and his handlers would just want to be “consistent” with the pre-arrival statement they wrote, obviously a ploy to justify Bolante’s stay in an hospital.

It appears that Joc-Joc lost weight in jail. His hair all turned grey. He’s older but probably still not wiser.

He seems stressed and appears harangue. Maybe due to the long flight, but not because of a serious illness.What’s obvious about this is the apparent subtle “protection” he seems to be enjoying right from disembarkation.

It appears that he’ll ask to be transported to a hospital, feigning illness. Nonetheless, lest we be deceived again, Joc-Joc actually can stand on his own and appears in good health. His weight loss could be the result of anxieties after losing his appeal for asylum in America and what fate really awaits him upon his return.

What’s certain is this–Bolante has to account for the following sins against the People:

• Account for 728 million released to him via the fertilizer project under the GMA (Ginintuang Masaganang Ani) program
  
• Account for the 1.1 billion pesos released to him through the GMA livestock, etc, program
  
• Account for 1.54 billion pesos released to him via the agri tractors program

Right now, he’s being taken cared of at St. Luke’s Medical Center after he complained of chest pains. Bolante was taken by uniformed security personnel and rode an ambulance. It appears that there was a prior arrangement with the hospital, since reports show that there’s a room waiting for Bolante. There, in the suite where Bolante is expected to be brought, waits his wife and kids. At the airport, Bolante was met by one of his children.

The Senate lawyer, part of the Chamber’s sergeant at arms office, says they have sent their security personnel to secure Bolante. However, it’s uncertain whether they will actually succeed in arresting Bolante.

It appears that Bolante still enjoys the protection of the Powers-That-Be. It’s very clear that Bolante would not do a Lozada, not in the immediate future. Why do I say that?

Who ordered that elaborate security arrangement for Bolante? Bolante’s not a government official anymore, yet he enjoyed strict and tight security befitting a president.

Who secured those arrangements after his disembarkation? Who masterminded that he be brought to St. Luke’s Medical Center, away from the prying eyes of the media? 

My friends, expect another coverup. We may never know where our money went. Bolante, obviously, chose to do a Neri. And the mafia gang which he protected all these years is there to help him.

Like a thief arriving in the dead of the night, former Agriculture Undersecretary Jocelyn “Joc-Joc” Bolante is expected to arrive close to midnight tonight on board Northwest Airlines flight 71. Bolante, who’s being tagged as the architect of the 756 million fertilizer fund scam, is expected to arrive at the NAIA. He’ll be turned over by US marshalls to waiting immigration officials, who will then turn him over to the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI). The NBI, in turn, will hand Bolante over to the Senate arresting team.

Though Bolante’s counsels appealed to the Supreme Court for a temporary restraining order on the implementation of the Senate’s arrest warrant, lawyers failed to get it. The Justices are on leave and no one acted upon the appeal. Bolante is expected to spend the night at the Senate holding office.

Many expect Bolante to do the right thing–exposed who really benefitted from the scam. Though the Senate Committee on Agriculture already concluded their probe on the controversy and has established introvertible proof of Bolante’s complicity on the scam, nonetheless, there’s still no closure on the issue.

One thing and one thing alone separates Bolante from greatness and that is fear. For Bolante, his situation is actually not a win-win but a loss-loss.

Bolante does not enjoy the luxury of time. For one, his supposed “protector” is on her last years in office. Like him, Gloria faces a very tough post-term scenario. Her political and non-political enemies have intimated their desire to pursue legal actions against her and her Cabinet officials involved in many of these scams. She might, probably, enter into compromise agreements with the new administration; yet, some sectors might want to continue pursuing legal actions against her and her family.

If she stays in power though, she faces very stiff opposition, even direct violence from democratic groups. If she stays here in the Philippines, she has a big chance of escaping prosecution, provided that she surrenders some “concessions”.

Now, if Bolante seeks succor from other officials, he may yet find himself in bigger trouble.

It’s logical for Bolante to think about securing himself and his family from further harm by just “letting it all out”. Unlike Jun Lozada who was actually forced to go to the other side, Bolante has no choice but go to the other side of the fence. If he fails to avail of this option, he might find himself deeper in trouble.

The Catholic Bishop’s Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) just released a strongly worded condemnation of the Arroyo regime. CBCP head Archbishop Angel Lagdameo condemned the Arroyo regime for doing nothing to fight corruption. Lagdameo urged the people to act now and change the government.

This, by far, according to Ricky Carandang, is the strongest denunciation ever by the CBCP against Arroyo. Do we see a snowball of dissent against this regime, with Bolante’s arrival as the starting point? Hopefully, yes.

The rise of the New Patriots have begun.

On second thought…maybe the CBCP is just muscle flexing so that Arroyo strictly followed what she promised—a veto against the Reproductive Health Bill?

Is this another stunt to show Arroyo that CBCP has the numbers and the power of mischief to force Gloria to choose the CBCP over globalist reproductive health bill lobbyists?

Or, maybe, just maybe, this is part of a growing movement of change within Philippine society? Are we seeing the awakening of the Patriots and the beginning of the end of this regime?

Many followed the fearful one

It was a bloodbath. Anxious about the impending return to a veritable financial ice age, investors engaged on what analysts say was a frenetic selling binge yesterday. Trading was so traumatic that it was suspended for 15 minutes just to control the steady slide down south of the exchange.

Two banks, namely Banco de Oro and Export and Import Bank were the biggest losers, after investors dumped their stocks. Investors sold their BDO stocks after the bank reported a 1.3 billion peso loss due to their Lehman brothers’ exposure. While EXIM bank stocks remain very weak in trading.

Fears and uncertainty are gripping the stock market. Investors are quite uncertain if the local economy can really withstand the full effects of a global recession. Some analysts say investor confidence in the leadership of the economy is directly affecting the bourse, since more and more investors are selling now, anticipating a further depreciation of their stocks.

However, some analysts see that investors themselves are lacking money, hence, many of them are dumping stocks seen as “weak”.  A stock that got a 5% depreciation in price is considered weak already.

Analysts say this “losing trend” will continue for many weeks to come, unless a “miracle” happens in the global economy. 

With banks under assault and there’s uncertainty as to the capability of the local economy to really generate internal activity, many investors are pessimistic about the Philippine situation. 

In this kind of situation, investors should shift their focus from equity trading into the money market. The peso is expected to breach the 50 peso to a dollar mark by November and it could further slide into the 51-52 range by the end of the year, leading to the first quarter of 2009. The BSP is not in a very good position to defend the continued slide of the peso since most of its resources are being earmarked for the government’s crisis contingency fund. 

Hindi ninyo ba napapansin? Habang papalapit ang pagdating ni Jocelyn “Joc-Joc” Bolante, lagi nating naririnig ang katagang “arkitekto” ng fertilizer scam. Maaaring totoo. O maaaring hindi. Pero, ang sigurado–ipinako na ng gobyerno ang lahat ng sisi kay Bolante.