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Five prelates of the monolithic Roman Catholic church issued a statement calling on the people to act against the prevailing order of the times. Iloilo Archbishop and CBCP Head Angel Lagdameo made that call last Tuesday. Aside from merely lambasting the Arroyo administration for its seeming role in the perpetuation of graft and corruption, Lagdameo called upon the `liberators’ of the Motherland to put an end to this cycle of shame and start building a new government. 

Question–is it wrong for the archbishops to do this kind of thing now that there’s a pending bill called “Reproductive Health bill” waiting either the signature of Arroyo or her veto? Some sectors speculate that the RCC is just “muscle flexing”, telling Arroyo that the Church is still a force to reckon with. Showing signs of insecurity? Maybe. Or a reflection of inadequate moral discernment?

It could also be a sign that leading proponents of the RH-bill are winning the debate. Two large religious organisations, the Iglesia Ni Cristo and the Jesus is Lord Movement (JIL) are also working silently behind the corridors of power, lobbying for the passage of this bill. Not to mention the US government, and foreign pro-choice lobbyists exerting tremendous PR pressure for Arroyo to make that historic act.

Though the statement really echoes the sentiments of the majority, few believe that a move to oust Gloria could really muster enough support from a so-called “desensitized” military and a throng of trapos intent on earning millions in 2010. This belief stems from earlier models of change where the people’s movement relied on the security forces of the state to effect leadership change. With an unworthy successor (yet popular one) to Arroyo, few welcome radical change simply because doing the right thing now might further cause damage.

Having said that, I think that proponents of change should simply alter their boxed formula for revolts and entertain the idea that calls for new forces leading the charge. Simply put, newer paradigms do not need a withdrawal of support to effect change. Catalysts for change should disabuse the minds of the people and establish this paradigm that simply calls on a Council of State to administer the affairs of the State during the period of transition. The message should be as simple as: to avoid greater confusion, chaos and violence in 2010, the People’s Movement is asking Gloria Arroyo to step down before the elections and make that sacrifice. With her spotty record, Arroyo should be made to resign immediately to avoid a further slide down south of the economy and political system.

A friend sent these photos. These pictures show victims of the alleged bombing of a village in Maguindanao last September 7. The official Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) statement is: these are collateral damages. They were caught in a crossfire between the Bangsamoro rebels and soldiers. 

dead and pregnant. how much for her life, mrs. arroyo?

Just look at these photos and see for yourself. This is the true costs of the war. Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro says they still need 80 billion pesos more for the war. I dare ask him–how many more bombs will you allow to be dropped in Mindanao? How many more mortar rounds will your soldiers spend to force the Bangsamoro rebels to drop to their knees? How many more ammo rounds do you possibly need to kill all those people seeking their own land to cultivate for themselves and not for the Lobregats and the Pinons? And how many more soldiers will you send to these deaths in Basilan, Tawi-Tawi, Sulu, Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur, Lanao del Norte and Cotabato? How many kids can you possibly sacrifice to end this war? A few hundreds?

dead girl, dead future. how many more kids will die due to this war?

The Bangsamoro rebels and government should go back to the negotiating table and talk peace. There’s no justification for all of these deaths. It’s barbaric and always cause underdevelopment.

Like Nero during the burning of Rome, Mrs. Arroyo asked for a thorough probe of what happened. But the photos speak for themselves–there were indiscriminate bombings that happened and its undeniable. The AFP should at least admit that they erred and should not wash their hands on this one. That admission should have at least lessened the impact of this incident. The AFP’s continued denial of this incident further justified the war. 

End the war now!

Seems that government is on an all-out propaganda offensive to justify its obvious intention of not going back to the peace table. This early, DILG Secretary Ronnie Puno is on the propaganda war path, telling the MILF to police its ranks while government unleash its dogs of war. Puno is ostensibly parroting the line of government and some senators saying that government should not pursue peace talks or probably delay it and instead run after the rogue elements of the MILF.

This is pure and simple double-talking…again. Government tries to wiggle its way out of the legal and constitutional mess that’s the MOA. Arroyo and her minions are telling us that they’re not ready to talk peace unless the MILF gives up their arms and like lambs, meekly and humbly ask that they’ll be given the BJE! Are they serious? Obviously these Moro rebels will never do that! They already told government what they want–talk peace by honoring the MOA. The MOA is the product of years of negotiations. By dilly-dallying and doing all these dilatory tactics will not help in the restoration of peace and order in the South. Government should demonstrate its honesty and seriousness in these peace talks. Same as with the MILF. These Moro fighters should also take a breather and try to allow their representatives to talk peace with the GRP. If they’re too heated and too angry about what happened, then, definitely, these peace talks would amount to nothing!

War is a riskier proposition than peace

There are two things why I’m campaigning to oppose the Mindanao War. First, this war would just weaken the entire Philippine economy, leading to more chaos and more misery for the people. It’s mistaken to think that this will just be isolated or contained in Mindanao. History has shown that a war in Mindanao always impact on the national economy. It destroyed the economy during the time of strongman Marcos and not even martial rule failed to quell the Bangsamoro rebellion. If Marcos fell to power due to a weakened Philippine state caused by the all-out war policy in Mindanao, Arroyo is sure to suffer a worse fate than him. And Arroyo is no Marcos.

And second, war will open the floodgates of more terrorist actions in that region and even spillover the rest of the country. Obviously, the tactic of hawks in Malacanang is simple–play wag the dog to neutralize public outrage against rising oil and food prices, then, escalate the conflict to flush out hard-core independence supporters within the MILF. Military strategists and even government are trying to split the MILF under the presumption that a splintered MILF would be weaker than its present state.

Malacanang is foolish if they think they

This explains why war-mongers from both the administration and opposition are calling for the prosecution of MILF Commanders Bravo and Umbra Kato. These two are strong supporters of the Bangsamoro independence movement. They are serious contenders to the post being held now by MILF Chairman Al Haj Murad, who’s being perceived now as a compromiser and a strong ally or supporter of the Arroyo peace overtures. If the MILF splits, the military and government forces hope to raze the MILF camps to the ground. A military coup d’grace, yes, but, as history has shown, it would likewise fail to permanently resolve the Bangsamoro Question. Why?

Should a split occur, it would just affect the top leadership of the MILF, but not the ground forces. Murad will just be isolated. The rest of the ground forces will continue the fight under a different or separate setup from the MILF top command. Their ranks will surely swell by the thousands since as things stand today, they have assumed a higher moral ground than Murad.

The failure of Murad to conclude a peace agreement with the government is a sure sign for the Bangsamoro to really go all-out for war. Should Murad lose credibility, he risks losing power in the MILF. If he loses power, government and even the US government risks losing an ally within the ranks of the secessionist group. If they lose Murad, there is no more avenue for talks. It would permanently end all peace talks because surely, there’s no one in the new MILF group who’ll be willing to talk peace with the government.

If the government succeeds in splitting the MILF, its ground forces will just revert from a regular army formation (which is easier to control) to a guerilla setup. A guerilla war is more costly for government and the military than fighting a regular army. Yes, probably, the military will succeed in occupying rebel camps. That’s good for propaganda. But, ultimately, it stands to lose the entire war because the AFP is still not capable of defeating guerilla forces. Look at the way they conducted themselves against the NPAs. 

A guerilla war in Mindanao will lead to the humiliating defeat of the Philippine government. 

As I’ve written in previous posts, this MOA is the only acceptable accord between the GRP and the MILF. Should this fail and government continue its war plan and strategy of not signing the MOA on ancestral domain, it lay open for the Bangsamoro the possibility of just waging war to claim what they think is rightfully theirs. If this happens, expect a full-scale and long-drawn out war. A long war would drain government resources and paralyze the entire Mindanao economy. A paralyzed Mindanao economy would surely affect the national economy, thereby, erasing all economic gains we already got since 2001.

Should the Mindanao conflict turn into a full-scale war, it risks turning the entire Mindanao into a veritable regional flashpoint. A flashpoint scenario is what the US is trying to avoid because it would attract terrorist groups from all over the Asia-Pacific region, becoming a magnet for more terror attacks. This early, the MILF is perceiving this as a war of attrition and a moral war since they see themselves as having been double talked by government in the peace talks. A moral war is more dangerous than any war because it risks attracting sympathizers from within and from outside Mindanao. 

If this war turns into a war of independence, that would be a signal for Jemaah Islamiya fighters to lend support. If they give support, that would eventually turn Mindanao into a regional battlefield, serving as a magnet for terrorist fighters from all over the Asia-Pacific region. What Southern Thailand fighters failed to accomplish, the Bangsamoro fighters are sure and expected to succeed.

It

We risk disruption of thousands of lives there. We are sure to lose more lives from this war, possibly more than what we lost during the Bangsamoro rebellion of the 70’s.

We also risk fragmenting the entire AFP. This early, demoralization has crept in the military ranks, as casualties mount, as senior and junior officers lose their lives and as more soldiers see their comrades fall by the hundreds. 

And we are seeing a human catastrophe in the making. Government is not capable of solving a swelling number of displaced families. War will surely drain government resources. Right now, we are seeing a 15 billion budget deficit. This will definitely rise as government devote its resources in Mindanao. How much does war cost? In the time of Erap, government spent 1 billion everyday. Do we have enough resources to sustain an all-out war? Do we have the money to fund an anti-guerilla war?

In this war, as I’ve said in previous entries, the entire Filipino People is sure to lose everything.

Muslim legislator Mujiv Hataman lambasted his fellow Muslims for alleged human rights violations. He says that the MILF rebels are violating the Islamic Laws on War. I just wonder if Hataman investigated these incidents prior to releasing this statement. 

Is he sure that the MILF really torched those houses? Is he sure that MILF rebels killed those innocent civilians?

As of late, there are already 39 killed, most of whom are civilians. A high-ranking military officer has been killed. While there has been no reports of serious casualties from the MILF ranks.

This has got to stop. 

We should militate against the war. This war will definitely affect us in many ways.

Unscrupulous traders might use this to further jack up their prices. If you have’nt notice, prices of rice have reached 40 plus pesos for every kilo. Prices of basic commodities have also risen while gasoline prices remained the same despite lowered global fuel prices. 

And government is doing nothing.

If you notice the main issue opposing the GRP-MILF deal, you’ll notice one oft-repeating word: “dismemberment”. Most analysts, unfortunately including United Opposition Spokesman Atty. Adel Tamano (a born Muslim by the way), say they oppose the deal because it would cause the division of the country, which, they say, contradicts the Constitution.

I dare say, what dismemberment? What is to be dismembered when there’s no integration in the first place?

Beyond the legalities or the definition of a territory within the constitutional purview, did we, the Filipino People, really considered the Bangsamoro people as Filipinos? Are these people from Basilan, Tawi-Tawi, Jolo, Zamboanga and all the rest of Moroland even considered themselves Filipino?

Did these people inhabiting Moroland act, live and breathe like Filipinos? Do we really integrate or assimilate their culture with our prevailing one?

When ask how do we describe our country, most of us would say “we’re the only Christian nation in Asia”, right? That statement alone shows you how isolated, how disjointed, how clear the distinction is in the minds of most Filipinos. Yes, it could be a factual statement, but it is not accurate. That statement already excluded 3 million born Muslims and millions more of reverted Muslims (or what we call “Balik-Islam”).

Face it–these people constituting the Bangsamoro People–have a different system of beliefs, have a different tradition, have a different culture that totally opposes or contradicts the prevailing culture. What most Filipinos consider as legal, most are contradictory to Bangsamoro beliefs. The Bangsamoro is different. The Bangsamoro is unique. The Bangsamoro is not Filipino.

People opposing this deal do so because they’re afraid they’ll lose their powers. More than property rights, these people got wealthy enslaving the Bangsamoro. For decades, they enjoyed the fruits of the land, exploiting the natural and human resources of Mindanao, for their own. And what happened to those whom they enslaved?

Extreme and widespread poverty leading to widespread dissent and a long-standing war that has threatened the lives and futures of the Bangsamoro people. In all provinces of this country, Mindanao is the most impoverished, especially Basilan, Tawi-Tawi, Jolo and Zamboanga.

Those claiming “royal blood” oppose this deal because they’ll lose whatever “divine claims” they have over the Bangsamoro. I dare say, what right do they have to claim proprietary property claims to these Muslim lands when it is illegal to claim ownership of land under Islamic law in the first place? Besides, what “divine right” do they have when they have’nt done anything to uplift the lives of their fellow Bangsamoro in those lands which they claim to be theirs?

And those in the United Opposition who oppose this deal do so because, face it, Gloria can claim credence to this as the only president who successfully resolved the Bangsamoro Question. I oppose Gloria and want her out immediately, but, in this issue, I fully support her and the peace panel. The Opposition reject this deal because the deal is a landmark deal that Gloria can claim as her perpetual legacy to the peace issue.

The Opposition says government is entering into the deal with an insincere intention. They say government can’t deliver its promise. How do they know? Are these “oppositionists” now claiming to be psychics? I mean, how do they know that government can’t deliver? And besides, that’s the problem of the MILF right? If government can’t deliver its promises, then, government is liable to the MILF and the international community.

Opposition says they reject this deal because it would lead to charter change. I don’t believe that. MILF peace panel member Atty. Michael Mastura says that the deal only recognizes the right of the Bangsamoro to have their own state. And even if Gloria do want charter change, I don’t think she’ll succeed in it because people would definitely oppose any change other than resolving the Bangsamoro question.

We all need to give peace a chance. Those who want war, like North Cotabato Vice Governor Ed Pinol and the Lobregats of Zamboanga, let them be damned. Peace adviser Hermogenes Esperon Jr. is right–if the MILF imposes its rights under the deal in the future, the AFP does’nt have any right to intervene on their behalf. Let the MILF resolve these problems. It’s their territory anyway.

Let me say one thing–we need to consider this deal as a necessary small step towards the ultimate solution to the Bangsamoro question. For after this deal, there’s no more we can expect from this but a long debilitating war. And a war at this point, would affect everybody, Filipinos and Bangsamoros.