And it seems that peace is slowly dissipating, as both the GRP and MILF sides continue stone-walling, with the GRP telling the MILF that it would not sign the agreement under its present form, indicating that it wants a re-negotiation. While on the part of the MILF, it believes the present MOA is the best option and will not go to the peace table for another round of talks. 

Such a situation may, indeed, lead to a full-scale war, which as what New Philippine Revolution wrote could turn into a very nasty one, given that the conflict has a wider area of coverage than Erap’s anti-Muslim war back in 2000. What we must avoid is a further escalation which could turn the entire Mindanao into a magnet for external participation of regional terror groups. This early, there are signs of bombings in key cities, such as Zamboanga, which could be the handiwork of the Jemaah Islamiya.

Ding Deles, former peace adviser hit the government for going to the peace table with “unclean hands”. She says government can’t deliver its promises because the MOA will go thru many constitutional processes before it can be effected and it might hit many snags.

What Deles is actually saying is that this government and any other administration after it, cannot really enter into any agreement with the MILF because it really cannot deliver what the Bangsamoro is aspiring for. Because if this administration will not deliver, then, what’s the chance that the next one will?

Baloney. This government can solve this 40 year old problem, by allowing this MOA to succeed. So far, this is the best agreement forged between the two panels. What more can these two parties discuss except giving the Bangsamoro a state of their own under a federalist setup? That’s the most extreme and the most appropriate answer to the Bangsamoro Question. Beyond that, is war.

What Deles and the rest of the oppositors don’t realize is this–if this deal doesn’t push thru, we all risk a further escalation of this problem, even leading to a very serious regional security problem in the years to come. Why?

First, should the MILF don’t deliver its mandate before its Bangsamoro constituency, it risk losing credibility and support. When it loses credibility, young and old fighters would turn into another direction, one of them is extremism, as offered by the Jemaah Islamiyah. This regional terror group has been operating in Mindanao since 2000, and if the MILF loses its mass base, these fighters will resort to other more extreme means of getting what they want. This is what happened to the MNLF. When it capitulated in 1996, extremist groups such as the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) gained strength and became such a huge force it is still being neutralized as of this moment. 

Are we prepared to see other ASG-like guerilla groups wrecking havoc not only in Mindanao, but in other parts of the country? Are we really ready to see Mindanao turn into a war magnet with other regional terror groups making it a modern battlefield? Are we ready to see Bangsamoro mujaheddins going to other parts of the country, detonating bombs and creating havoc to our cities?

This is the reason why US Ambassador Kristie Kenney was there all throughout the peace talks, to make doubly sure that the GRP and the MILF really come to terms with each other. Defense secretary Gilbert Teodoro in his interview over at Private Conversations on ANC says that the real interest of the US in those talks is to ensure regional security. Why?

If the Mindanao conflict spills over the rest of the region, it threatens the US mainland. A radicalization of young Moro fighters in Mindanao poses a very serious risk in the security of America. Remember that past World Trade bombers trained and even used the Mindanao corridor as a springboard towards the US. The possibility of Mindanao becoming a regional hub of terrorism is very high if these peace initiatives fail.

So, my fellow Filipinos, I know we hate Gloria so much. We don’t want her to extend her term beyond 2010. If we really think hard about this, a term extension is simply a totally different matter altogether. It is really not connected with this MOA or the Mindanao peace talks. For once, try to think beyond our interest and consider the implications of this issue in the regional fight against terror.

by Patricio Mangubat (newphilrevolution.blogspot.com)

A brewing revolt in the South

While we are so engrossed with the food crisis, a revolution is a-brewing in Mindanao.

Yesterday, a band of Islamic militants staged a rally in Sulu, one of the Southernmost islands of the Philippines. The rallyists called for independence from Manila, the seat of power. Police were unable to resist the militants, who carry long knives tucked in their waists.

A mockery of Arroyo

Obviously, this is a mockery of the administration of Mrs. Arroyo. One, it was a defiant act of rebellion. That action was a direct contravention of existing Philippine laws. The rallyists should have been arrested for inciting to rebellion and/or secession since they are calling for independence of Sulu. Police were helpless in arresting the militants, calling the incident just a way to let off steam.

Was that just a way to let off steam? No.

That incident was plain and simple rebellion. If it happened here in Manila, the rallyists could have been arrested, even mauled by police. But no. That one occurred in Mindanao, and our cops are afraid shitless.

Bigger than a rally

Second, that act shows that Islamist are preparing for something bigger than a call for independence. It’s just a warning to Manila that Tausugs are again ready to go to war against them. Is Manila ready for war?

Obviously, Manila is ill prepared for another war in the South. That might cause Mrs. Arroyo’s quick downfall. Imagine a scenario where hundreds if not thousands of troops being killed in Sulu. Imagine another conflagration similar to the one which happened in the 1970’s where Marcos sent his troops to suicide missions in Mindanao.

Government peace panel adviser Jesus Dureza said it might take a while to implement the remaining unmet provisions of the MNLF peace pact. What Dureza meant is this–Manila is not that serious in really institutionalizing peace in Mindanao.

Talks are rife that former MNLF chairman Nur Misuari will join the MNLF panel in OIC talks in Jeddah. Will it appease the Tausugs? No. Remember that only a few weeks ago, Nur has been replaced by a government factotum in the person of Ampatuan. Ampatuan has zero credibility among his people. The entire MNLF Central Committee does not have the personality to influence the remaining MNLF fighters toe the government line. 

What about the MILF? Reports say, the biggest Bangsamoro group is split into different factions, due to the inability of MILF Chairman Al Haj Murad to maintain organizational cohesion. Many young MILF fighters vowed not to follow Murad should he proceed with peace talks with Manila. Reports say as many as 3,000 young fighters will continue waging war with Manila even if both sides sign a peace pact.

Revolt could break Gloria’s backbone

A revolution in Mindanao could take its toll on this administration, both politically and economically. It could break the backbone of Mrs. Arroyo who cling to power in the barest of threads. Remember that her troops have suffered innumerable defeats in the battlefield against Muslim fighters in the South. The once-feared Marines have been decimated in that area. If war breaks out, how will government explain the expected deaths and casualties of government troops there? How will it cope with the exodus of thousands of families? Is government logistically prepared to face this eventuality?

Effects in the regional anti-terror campaign

How will events happening in Mindanao impact on the regional anti-terror campaign? Reports on the ground show that more and more Bangsamoros are being influenced by radical Islamist thinking. A report by Maria Resa of ABS-CBN revealed that a new group has been formed which diametrically pursues the Jemaah Islamiya philosophy, that is, the creation of a Pan Islamic Sultanate.

This new group, allegedly being funded by the global Islamist organisation Al-Qaeda, could be funding the escalation of hostilities in the South. Remember that anti-terror groups have been unable to break the financial backbone of JI and it continues to spread its tentacles in the region. Left unattended, this new group could pose a serious security threat in the region, more dangerous and lethal than its predecessors.

US intervention in Bangsamoro affairs

A few months back, US Ambassador Kristie Kenney visited the main MILF camp in Mindanao. This is the first time that a representative of the US government came to visit the MILF. Analysts say this could lead the way for the de-listing of the MILF as a terrorist organisation. Some analysts however say that it was a blatant “in-your-face” act by the US against Gloria, which, fortunately, did not result to anything serious other than a note verbale.

What that visit meant was very simple–it shows that the US is very serious in addressing the root causes of rebellion in Mindanao. It wants to participate as a third party mediator. Malaysia has been a long-time participant in the talks. Yet, nothing substantial has resulted so far with Malaysia at the helm of the talks. 

The US has a substantial strategic defense interest in Mindanao. One, Mindanao has been known as a safe haven for terrorists. Two, most of the suicide bombers who concocted the 9/11 attacks and the World Trade Center bombings came from Mindanao prior to planing to the mainland. And three, in the interest of regional security, Mindanao is placed very high in the agenda of the US State department since most areas being controlled by the MILF provide training to would-be JI fighters in the region. The Philippines ranks as the training and r&r (rest and recreation) area of the JI, followed by Malaysia and Indonesia  as recruitment centers and Singapore as the financial hub.

A war in the South, especially in Sulu, would destroy all institutional efforts being implemented there by regional de-escalation experts. It could likewise, provide JI an opportunity to train their fighters in actual combat. 

Net–a war in Mindanao could spark a regional war between the JI and anti-terror troops. It could endanger regional security. Is the region prepared to sacrifice its security because of Arroyo’s inability to talk peace with the Bangsamoro?