NP-NPC-LDP vice presidential candidate Loren Legarda stressed this point in her speech before the Congressional Commission on Science, Technology and Engineering (COMSTE), scientists, urban planners, members of the diplomatic corps, LGUs, and SUCs at the conference entitled “Engineering Resilience: Beyond Climate Change Adaptation” on Monday at the Sofitel Philippine Plaza Hotel.

“Today I am taking a break from the political campaign, in order to campaign on an urgent, critical issue — dealing with the effects of climate change and addressing our vulnerabilities. The time of climate change cynics is over. We have no time for apathy and inaction. Climate change is real issue, felt by the poorest of our people,” she said.  

She cited the plight of farmers against El Nino, hunger, poverty, and the spread of and disease as “daily consequences of climate change”.

Public officials have been taking steps to put in place policies to fight climate change, such as the Climate Change Act, of which Legarda was the principal author and which was signed by the President in October 2009.

“But legislation can only go so far,” Legarda said. “It is by harnessing the efforts of collaboration, and effecting change with a strong foundation built on our own experiences and that of other nations, and backed by scientific data that we can we can make our country better prepared to face the worst natural disasters and minimize damage and the loss of life.”

Legarda set down three goals government-private sector collaboration must aim for the fight against climate change.

First, building codes and zoning policies should be strictly enforced. This calls for stamping out corruption that gets around these rules. “This means not placing people, homes, and industries in high risk areas,” Legarda said.

Second, the country’s ecosystems, 60 percent of which is declining, must be protected. Both the government and the private sector must be aware of “trade-offs” in exploiting natural resources.

As examples, she cited mangrove plantations that when turned into shrimp ponds increases the risk of storm surge and cleaning forests for agriculture that increases the risk of landslides and flooding.

“Development should reduce rather than produce risks to our society and our economy. Development should promote resilient investments,” Legarda said.

Third, agricultural productivity must be improved because 75 percent of the poor depend on it. This calls for removing barriers such as inequitable land distributing, lack of access to seed and irrigation technology, and lack of economic diversification.

Improving the livelihood of farmers, she pointed out, would allow them to recover more quickly from disaster losses.

Legarda based her points on the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction, which found that the problems caused by natural disasters stem from “poor urban governance, vulnerable rural livelihoods, and ecosystems decline.”

As proof the effectiveness of the collaboration between the government and the private sector she cited the conference itself, where she was speaking.

The conference is a partnership of the Congressional Commission on Science Technology and Engineering working hand in hand with the Manila Observatory.

“This sort of collaboration breaks down old barriers and forges new paths that will benefit the Philippines and, hopefully, the entire world,” she said.

Loren Legarda---an asset or a liability to Manny Villar?

Loren Legarda just agreed on a Manny Villar tandem and that’s an obvious one. Legarda needs all the money she can muster to defeat a formidable opponent in the name of Mar, who is not only a Roxas, but an Araneta. And what’s a Legarda compared with a candidate having both big haciendero clans rooting for a win?

Coffee habitues are wagging their tongues and telling every one how Danding Cojuangco gave Loren 200 million to fund her advertising and propaganda machines while Villar, the prodigious billionnaire throwing some millions more to make Legarda’s war chest reach 700 million pesos. Loren is being accused of political courtesan-ship, hurtful words if you ask me. In the dirty world of politics, those who know how to play the game always win. And Loren’s a veteran in this wheeling and dealing world. Yet some say, she owes Senator Ed Angara a lot for sealing that Villar deal.

The question really is—will the entry of Loren as VP benefit Manny Villar? Let’s analyze.

Loren’s mass base is good for about 10-12 million—if we base her pulling power during previous electoral exercises. She can claim that, safely. The question is—will those millions or even a fraction transfer to Villar?

Quite possibly, Villar will probably get some millions from Loren, assuming that those groups who supported Loren are still un-committed to a presidentiable. Remember that during the last two elections, Loren’s machinery depended on Erap’s and the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC). Her transfer to the Nacionalista does not guarantee that those two big machineries will also go with her.

Sources say, Loren’s grassroots organization is not as solid as it looks. In fact, commitments of organizers are somewhat interlocked in her case. Most of her organizers are committed to former president Joseph Estrada and with the re-building of the JEEP NI ERAP, a considerable number of organizers are surely not supportive of her. So, it is still fussy how she’ll be able to counter a stronger Mar Roxas machinery.

Loren is not an Erap. Erap’s political endorsement is infectious; its a sure winner. Loren has not been proven in this department. What Manny Villar needs is someone who can transfer some of the magic to his to be able to counter Noynoy or a Chiz Escudero.

And if you look, Loren shares the same constituency as Villar’s. Is that good? No. Villar can cover enough ground without Loren, if you look at it. Can Loren do the same thing? No, simply because Loren does not have the logistics of a Villar. So, who benefits from the tandem? It is no other than the political prostitute.

Lingkod Loren

Loren Legarda, whom everybody thought as a weak candidate, got my admiration yesterday. Instead of perorating about her past feats as a legislator or her advocacy work, Loren provided us with a six point “Pro-Poor, Pro-People, Pro-God” agenda, which was devoid of all necropolitical imagery nor the self-serving halleluyas of ass-lickers.

At last, a candidate with a platform. We may not agree with what she thinks is the direction to take, but, I, personally, appreciate that Loren took the time to analyze Filipino society and provide the direction for us to take in the next six years (or even ten).

Which leads me to think—Loren, probably, is not just the best for the vice presidency; she deserves the Highest Post, really.

Damn all those who think that gender is a serious election issue. All these men who came before us, and that includes necropolitician Noynoy Aquino,  did not even care to provide us with their visions. They only expressed their self-serving dreams, but nary anything about service or a road-map towards rehabilitating our damaged institutions.

Loren was brave enough to provide us with her six-point agenda, opening herself up to brickbats later on, but at least, a platform by which we will then use to measure her competence and performance. For some, maybe, presenting your platform this early is perceived to be a political death trap. For a trapo-nian mind, with a 60’s upbringing, that exposes you to attacks. Never mind, says Loren. It is important to give importance to the People.

Some might even think that Loren is your ordinary political prostitute; but her Luneta speech proved that she is not. Loren has her own mind, acts based on her own analysis and shows a steely political will—all we aspire for for a presidentiable to have.

Not a dilly-dallying teka-teka like Gibo Teodoro, nor a worshipper of dead icons like Noynoy or as gangster-minded like an Erap or a posterboy of Big Business or Big Real Estate Business personified, Loren is presidentiable material.

Now, we can sleep soundly at night, thinking that should Erap win, we now have someone who will ascend the Highest post more competent than him.

If you look at the SWS survey ratings from September 2008 to September 2009, she has a very high support base of 24%—higher than Chiz Escudero who is being touted as the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) standard bearer and even of Erap’s (only 13.5%). Escudero has been her most ardent suitor. While Gibo Teodoro is just waiting in the wings for her to say “Yes!” (Gibo, by the way, has a dismal 1% consistent mass base support). Manny Villar is still just some few feet away, fiddling with his big bucks.

Why will I agree to run as second fiddle when my average mass support is higher than all these suitors of mine, says Legarda? Quite understandable, if I would say so.

Loren’s dilemma is actually more of a perception issue rather than a winnability issue. The perception is, Loren’s chances are slim because people would not prefer another woman president. This wrong perception affects funding support behind her candidacy. Of course, without campaign funds, how would she run?

Legarda’s mass base support is very consistent unlike those of Chiz and Estrada’s whose support bases are vascillating and probably, even of Noynoy’s whose support base is still amorphous at this point. A 2o-plus percent mass base is nothing to sneeze at. In a five or even six-cornered fight, this could win elections!

Yet, the reality on the ground runs counter to these survey findings. Political funders have their sights trained on supporting a male president.

Now, an unsolicited advice to Ms. Legarda—think STRATEGIC.

Run as vice president with someone with the machinery—regardless of party affiliation. If you run as NPC vice president, Chiz would only use your mass base to bolster his. If you run as Manny Villar’s second fiddle, the same thing. Yet, if you run under Teodoro’s party, you will still preserve your constituency PLUS enjoy using a big party machinery capable of trouncing a Mar Roxas.

It’s your call.

Danding Cojuangco (in suit) having a toast with NPC partymates

From 1973 to 1982, small copra farmers were charged with 15 pesos per 100 kilograms of their copra sold. Thru PD 276 and 414 and RA 6260, PDs 961, 1468 and 1699, these taxes collected from 18 million coconut farmers were put under what is now popularly termed as “coconut levy fund”. The aims of the fund were lofty and ideal. It aims to develop the coconut industry and make it globally competitive. 

The fund started as “public funds”, but through the machinations of some of Marcos cronies, allegedly led by Danding Cojuangco, it turned into “private”. Most of the fund, estimated to be worth P 9.7 billion then, were used to purchase stocks in different corporations and some used by Marcos cronies to buy personal properties for themselves. 

After 1986, the estimated value of the funds was placed at P 135 billion. Coco levy funds is estimated to be about P 2 billion. 

Under the Aquino administration, the PCGG declared that the coco levy funds were plundered by Marcos cronies led by Danding Cojuangco and Cocofed. One hundred officials of Cocofed led by Cojuangco and Lobregat were charged with conspiracy in the coco scam. One hundred billion of coco levy funds were sequestered by government, including that 720 million common shares of San Miguel Corporation, purchased using the funds.

President Ramos issued Executive Orders 277 and 481 declaring coco levy funds as public funds. SMC immediately filed TROs to stop the implementation of the EOs. Then Vice President Joseph Estrada talked with SC Chief Justice Narvasa to delay the decision of the Supreme Court declaring the coco levy funds as “public”.

When Estrada won the presidency, the control of the levy funds were returned to Danding Cojuangco, despite pending graft cases against the SMC chairman. Estrada initiated a “compromise settlement” between Cojuangco and representatives of the coconut farmers.

Estrada then issued EO 313 reversing the earlier Ramos’ executive orders declaring instead that the funds are “private” and authorized the use of its proceeds to pay in full creditors who are actually the cronies of Marcos.

When Estrada was deposed, his successor, Vice President and now President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo did not repeal EO 313. Gloria reportedly entered into an “unwritten” compromise agreement with Cojuangco, which allowed the SMC chair to enter into a “mutually beneficial” agreement with the  farmers. The agreement, which contemplates giving full control of the funds and SMC shares to Danding, while giving P 20 billion pesos to Arroyo for her 2004 re-election bid, did not materialize.

On December 14, 2001, the Davide Supreme Court ruled that the coconut levy funds which were used to purchase 720 million common shares of San Miguel Corporation (SMC) were “public”, and therefore, not subject to a sale by the corporation.

Seems like the political season is upon us despite persistent doubts as to the sincerity of the Arroyo administration’s intention of really managing the 2010 elections. Candidates for various posts, particularly those still working for Mrs. Arroyo, have spent close to P250 million just for infomercials alone. This does not include their expenses building their grassroots networks.

For all its worth, this exercise in democracy is contributing to the economic stability of our country. It created hundreds of jobs. It spurred growth in provinces, towns and cities. And it again brought growth to various industries and small and medium-sized enterprises.

If we analyze the total expenditures of these candidates, from those aspiring for national and local posts, the economy already reaped close to a billion pesos already. This is good for the economy. Expect this to continue up to May 2010.

Based on the latest surveys, former president Joseph Estrada is now top of the heap for the presidential post, followed by billionaire Senator Manny Villar. It seems like Erap is really running while Villar has already intimated his desire to field a complete slate for the elections. Mar Roxas, meanwhile, has slipped down the survey game, with just 9 percent followed by Senator Loren Legarda. Chiz Escudero’s ratings remain very consistent within the 18-19 percent. Seems like his ratings already plateaued.

Roxas needs a “miracle” to overtake Erap. While if Villar continues his campaign, he might yet spring a surprise. What is very relevant at this juncture is the size of one’s campaign machinery. That will spell a very big difference in winning or losing this elections.

Now, in a tight race such as this, you need a backbone and that is a strong personal network of local executives. Since there would be an inter-locking of interests, constituencies and agendum, a solid base of local executives and organizations is needed. If, for example, a candidate already has this, expect him to win single-handedly than the others. More likely, those who would depend largely on party machinery would surely not make the grade since, in this scenario, victory would depend on the personal network of supporters of the candidate, rather than sheer party power.

That’s why, Teodoro does not have a Chinaman’s chance of winning the elections if pitted against Estrada and possibly, Mar Roxas. Estrada has a solid mass base of support, a mix of fans and supporters gained from years as a traditional politician. Roxas, meanwhile, also has a very solid base of support, gained through years of running as senator. His 18 million is nothing to sneeze at and granted that he gets just a fraction of this, which is still substantial to allow him to win.

Teodoro, meanwhile, would rely on sheer strength of the administration party particularly in resources since this would mean more candies thrown at the sidelines instead of crumbs by other parties. Yet, in honest-to-goodness elections, Teodoro’s antics would probably go to waste since, in the final analysis, local politicians would think of their personal survival first before minding national campaigners like Teodoro. Ultimately, Teodoro would have to rely on his personal network, which, unfortunately, he doesn’t have. He hasn’t campaigned on a national basis and does not have a sterling record running a national campaign. Hence, he stands to suffer the same fate as that of former Defense secretary Renato de Villa, should he insists on running despite not being the standard bearer.

Now, we go to De Castro. De Castro just ran twice—first as Senator and then vice president. Question—can we now say that De Castro has a solid personal constituency of his own? It’s quite doubtful, considering that his numbers are not illustrative or definitive of a solid mass base. Maybe the reason why De Castro continues to enjoy positive support from the masses (as reflected in these surveys, most notably, Pulse Asia) is he hasn’t declared himself a candidate yet and he hasn’t thrown his fate to the Arroyo block. It would be quite different though should De Castro cast his lot with Arroyo’s, in which case, possibly, that would whither support away from him. That would really peel off De Castro’s perceived strength as a candidate since people will now see him as an administration lackey and that will surely affect his chances.

How about Chiz Escudero? Does he have a personal constituency that, despite party machinery, he’s surely win? Like De Castro, it’s doubtful. Chiz is a scion of local politics. It’s only just once that he ran a national campaign, yet, there are indications though that Chiz is slowly building up a personal mass base, like Estrada’s. However, everyone knows that it’s still quite dangerous to bet on Chiz since his influence is still untested. In this case, it is safer to bet with Loren Legarda, since she has shown a consistent base of more than 10 million votes with her successive national campaigns.

What am I trying to say here? In terms of statistical probabilities, a third force, like, for example, a Mar Roxas campaign is surer to win than all the others. Compared with Chiz and de Castro, Roxas is a veteran national campaigner, having campaigned for the senate twice. Of course, it’s safer still to also bet on Estrada since; his influence has not waned despite being incarcerated for some time.

And it’s not certain if Estrada could transpose the public trust reposed to him by the masses to his favoured candidate. FPJ’s case is one. Despite his endorsement, FPJ lost. FPJ could have won if there are no other parties that ran, says Estrada, but I know that he knows that that is surely not the reason why his friend lost.

What people considered then was the track record of FPJ as an official, which, we all know, was non-existent. Sure, those claps, those ohs and ahs of the masses were not votes; they’re simply shallow adulations.

Okey let me recap this so that it’s clearer.

1. I believe that 2010 will be a multi-party fight. Administration will pit De Castro over an opposition candidate, probably in the person of Estrada and a “third force” would emerge, represented by the Liberal Party led by Mar Roxas. What would prevent the possibility of an Estrada-Escudero tandem? Nothing of course, except that the NPC might throw their chances out of the window should they insists on running independently or casting their lot with LAKAS-KAMPI (unlikely).

2. Eventually, Villar’s Nacionalista Party will bow out of the race. Villar is encountering a whole lot of trouble after this ethics scandal. Surely, he’ll reconsider than fight it out. In that scenario, Villar would opt his chances with Estrada camp, since Jinggoy is still sympathetic with him, a sign that he’s still “in good graces” with them. However, Villar would suffer the fate of other wannabes since in the final count; it would just be the Estrada faction of the opposition and the administration that would figure prominently in the leader board.

3. Having said that, it is all the more likely that the elitist factions of Estrada and the administration will cancel themselves out to usher or pave the way for the victory of a perceived third force. Voters would definitely choose the safer opposition—a force that is not tainted with corruption and has a record of service. The question lies is—who will lead this third force? Would it be Escudero? That would be determined from the direction the NPC would take in the coming months. If NPC sways in the direction of the administration, they would be committing suicide and would lose their chance of conquering Malacanang. If NPC sways in the direction of the opposition that would cause a serious split that would pave the way for a third force. Unlike other third forces which ran, and lost under the weight of trapo machineries, this Third Force enjoys both strategic fund advantage and tactical opportunity.

Top 20

20. Anna Dizon. This commercial model is one of the hottest properties in Japan right now. She’s a Filipina, with French and Japanese blood. She was involved in a controversy late last year.

19. Angelica Panganiban. Angelic face with a body that’s sure to die for. And, what’s best—she has brains. She’s now the girlfriend of another actor so you guys out there, check na lang others in this list.

18. Atty. Katrina Legarda. Well, I think those members of UP Law Batch 80 were the ones who voted for Atty. Katrina Legarda and for some good reasons. She’s lovely. She’s very intelligent. And, what’s very nice about her, she pursues women’s and human rights issues. Sexy? You bet!

17. Bea Alonso. Betty La Fea in the list? Of course! Beauty, brains and having that sophisticated bearing–those values define Bea Alonso. One thing though, she needs to be very cautious in choosing whom to be with. Bea is a beautiful young lady. She’s also strong mentally and emotionally.

16. Lea Salonga. What can I say? Despite being a mom to an intelligent kid, Lea retained the fine qualities that endeared her to the hearts of the Filipino since she first started singing at That’s Entertainment.

15. Diana Zubiri. The perennial hit lister since she first started in showbiz. For those who don’t know, Diana is not just your average bombshell. No. Her rags-to-riches story is an inspiration.

14. Loren Legarda. Notice those checkbones? That sparkling smile? Those pinkish skin? That hair, always neatly combed and styled even if she’s in the heat of the campaign and pumping those calloused hands? She’s intelligent (magna cum laude in UP and summa cum laude in the National Defense College). Her heart is in the right place, but unfortunately, many people do not favor another female president after this disastrous reign by the pretender.

13. Mrs. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. Surprising? Yes! Some sender said that Mrs. Arroyo is actually sexy. She always smiles. Her eyes sparkle (maybe because she stands to inherit billions after 2010? Just joking!) and she wears fashionable clothes that shows power and elegance. Power is sexy? You bet!

12. Pia Hontiveros. Strictly politics? Nah. Pia has another show which tackles shopping. Pia has six kids already, a lovely and dutiful wife to a member of the AFP. Pia is also a highly respected journalist.

11. Pinky Webb. Many Pinoys pray that Pia decides muna to stay single. She’s engaged with Edu Manzano and there are rumours that they’ll tying the knot very soon. Somebody please go to the church and say ” we oppose!”. Hahaha. Just joking.

10. Rhea Santos. Host of GMA channel 7 shows, a highly respected journalist of such fine calibre and a loving wife to her husband.

9. Gretchen Malalad. Now, the debate has been settled. Gretchen Malalad is one fine lady. She has this very natural look and her eyes are kinda lovely. But, don’t get misled. Grethen is both a certified beauty queen and a martial artist who’ll make mince meat out of anybody who gets in her way. Remember Paul Alvarez? 

8. Wendy Puyat. Socialite. Gracious host. Sexy in a very distinct way. Friendly. Highly rated.

7. Sarah Geronimo. Sarah is an enigma. Some say she’s not quite lovely and others even say, her beauty is what they call “barriotic.” Others say, she has magnetic personality.One thing for sure—Sarah has this “x” factor, the one lacking to other Filipina beauties out there. She sings beautifully. She wears clothes in a kinda sexy way but is not lewd nor loud. Great that she’s in the list.

6. Kris Aquino. She’s already a mother but Kris Aquino remains one of the hottest and the sexiest Pinays around. She has a fine political and wealthy pedigree. In the first weeks, Kris was tops. But, as they say, you’re only good the last time you appeared.

5. Gretchen Fullido. She’s the prime example of a sexy and beautiful Pinay. Just look at her. Many people say she’s yummy. Many say, she’s not. But, hey, I don’t want to be prude and say that she’s not hot. She is. Best of all, she has brains which a lot of people out there don’t have. And guts. Tons of them.

4. Katrina Halili. What can I say except that it’s not only Dr. Hayden Kho who considers Katrina as not just hot and sexy but a lovely and cuddly Pinay.

3. Vicki Belo. This fiftish (or is it fortyish) lady remains very delectable especially to young, and hot-blooded Filipino males. She has been very controversial lately but managed to stay fresh, beautiful and sexy. A fine Filipina.

2. Krista Ranillo. The daughter of Matt Ranillo, 80’s matinee idol, is the talk of the town. This 21 year old Atenean is not just beauty—she’s also brains. She’s into a lot of showbiz activities now, doing a film and making all those shows. She’s the March cover of MAXIM Philippines. She’s not just immaculately beautiful—she’s also very, very photogenic. I expect a lot from her. What’s her secret? Maybe going to that lifestyle salon in Libis. Krizalis beauty salon, is that it, huh, Krista?

1. Marian Rivera. Wow, what can I say, except, scorchingly, erotically, intelligently, sexy. Look for that very controversial nipple slip ala Janet Jackson. I think my Ding Gagelonia has a copy.

Yummy Gretchen Fullido

1. Whose fairer, Grethen Fullido or Grethen Malalad?

2. Whose prettier, Grethen Barretto or Gretchen Fullido?

3. Who is sexier? Rhea Santos or Riza Santos?

4. Who is hotter? Cristine Hermosa or Cristine Reyes?

5. Who’s more delicious? Ruffa Mae Quinto or Ruffa Gutierrez?

6. Who’s more salacious? Cory Aquino or Korina Sanchez?

7. Who’s sexier? Regine Tolentino or Regine Velasquez?

Stately beauty na sabi virgin pa

8. Who’s hotter? Marian Rivera or Maryann Subido?

9. Who’s fresher? Anne Curtis or Anna Marie?

10. Who’s more curvaceous? Pinky Webb or Pinky Marquez?

11. Who’s prettier? Loren Legarda or Vilma Santos?

12. Who’s bigger? Angel Locsin or Rio Locsin?

13. Who’s more comely? Katrina Halili or Katrina Santos?

14. Who’s sexier? Angelica Panganiban or Angelica Jones?

15. Who do you want to have a nice talk? Pia Cayetano or Pia Hontiveros?

Email me your answers or better yet, give your comments. This poll ends after 30 days, or April 6, 2009.

For those who want to vote, just give your comments or email me at mangubat.patricio@gmail.com. I’ll post the results in this blog and all my other blogs after the poll counting.

There’s a simple answer–Filipinos don’t trust her. In fact, six out of ten Filipinos distrust Mrs. Arroyo. That’s what numerous credible polls show.

Flashback, Mrs. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s address before the people in a Rizal day speech in Baguio. Arroyo told the crowd that there’s a huge clamor for her to run despite all the polls which showed otherwise. She did ran and won not by the largest of margins but by the most suspicious one.

Now, this one. Has 7 years of being president already satiated her power lust? Or, she’s raring for another 7 years or more?

If the economic condition continues its deterioration, we expect her to say that people are clamoring for continuity, hence, she does not have any choice but to seek for another term. She can do that thru : (a) a declaration of a State of National Emergency or (b) a constitutional change. Many people believe that Gloria will use the MILF-GRP peace pact as a springboard. That route has encountered tremendous opposition before and I don’t think this administration would seriously risk its survival thru this unpopular measure.

What could be a more justifiable reason could be this economic crisis. Should this continue, we may see her declaring a State of Emergency which could prolong all thru 2009, frustrating the ambitions of many politicians who seek the highest post.

This strategy could work given that the present slate of “presidentiables” is perceived to be very thin and weak. Polls show 46 percent of people prefer a Loren-Cheez tandem, followed by a Villar-De Castro one and a Roxas-Pangilinan team. Those early polls try to establish a pattern which could change enroute to 2010.

However, this could also backfire given that at this early, people are being made to choose Gloria alternatives who’s record are far from being favorable. Without other better alternatives, people could lose hope.

Again, I ask, is Gloria really leaving in 2010?