“It is our revolution. This is our revolution: for true freedom, true justice and true progress. It is our People Power Revolution for everything that our great country can be. “Give us back our freedom. Give us back our dignity as free men, and leave us to make the best we can of our country. This is our country and we will get it back.” —Senator Mar Roxas, speaking before the mammoth crowd in Araneta Center

Liberal Party celebration at the Araneta Coliseum

Well said. This May 10, 2010 elections is more than an elections and as correctly predicted by Senator Mar Roxas (who is running as Vice President), this will eventually lead to a revolution, a revolution, says his running mate, Senator Noynoy Aquino, which will mark the power of the electorate.

” Voters’ power is the New EDSA” says Noynoy who remains as the frontrunner in the presidential surveys.

Mar is speaking from the heart. After separating from the Arroyo regime, Roxas has taken a very critical stance against the administration, whose administration is pot-marked with charges of graft and corruption.

Roxas has taken a very strong anti-graft position and has vowed to stamp out corruption once the Liberal Party takes power from Arroyo.

When Noynoy smokes em

Last year, when I was invited by Bobby Capco, PR man of Mar Roxas over at the Balai ni Mar, I met Noynoy. He arrived without any fanfare, all alone. No bodyguards, just plain and simple Noynoy came. I just left the building and went outside for a smoke. I remember it was some bloggers’ meeting with Mar. And I was there to get to know Mar better (since he was the official presidential candidate of the Liberal at that time).

He greeted me and I greeted back. We were like two men wanting, just wanting, to smoke and inhale those heavenly fumes. Yes, my dear, Noynoy smokes. And like any other smoker, he seemed to enjoy his lights.

He asked for my lighter and I gave him mine. We did not banter much. He asked me some questions and I answered him. It was no magical moment. It was only now that I realized that I spent some quiet moments with someone who would be president.

I am at ease with public personalities since I spent most of my adult life as a journalist. In some meetings that I attended, I was able to impress some of these people and they even became my clients.

For that moment, I never thought of impressing Noynoy nor was it ever a time when I even considered sharing him some of my thoughts about Mar. I never even told him that I thought Mar is quite sincere, yet, there is something lacking, maybe a charisma? Or maybe he’s packaged material that was quite oversold.

Anyway, I sighed and Noynoy sighed back. Seemed like we think the same way. It did not occur to me that maybe Noynoy was thinking along the same lines–how to energize Mar’s campaign. Mar is Noynoy’s best friend and their families are close. Maybe Noynoy was there to boost Mar’s faith. Whatever the reason was, I was glad that I was there.

Loren Legarda---an asset or a liability to Manny Villar?

Loren Legarda just agreed on a Manny Villar tandem and that’s an obvious one. Legarda needs all the money she can muster to defeat a formidable opponent in the name of Mar, who is not only a Roxas, but an Araneta. And what’s a Legarda compared with a candidate having both big haciendero clans rooting for a win?

Coffee habitues are wagging their tongues and telling every one how Danding Cojuangco gave Loren 200 million to fund her advertising and propaganda machines while Villar, the prodigious billionnaire throwing some millions more to make Legarda’s war chest reach 700 million pesos. Loren is being accused of political courtesan-ship, hurtful words if you ask me. In the dirty world of politics, those who know how to play the game always win. And Loren’s a veteran in this wheeling and dealing world. Yet some say, she owes Senator Ed Angara a lot for sealing that Villar deal.

The question really is—will the entry of Loren as VP benefit Manny Villar? Let’s analyze.

Loren’s mass base is good for about 10-12 million—if we base her pulling power during previous electoral exercises. She can claim that, safely. The question is—will those millions or even a fraction transfer to Villar?

Quite possibly, Villar will probably get some millions from Loren, assuming that those groups who supported Loren are still un-committed to a presidentiable. Remember that during the last two elections, Loren’s machinery depended on Erap’s and the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC). Her transfer to the Nacionalista does not guarantee that those two big machineries will also go with her.

Sources say, Loren’s grassroots organization is not as solid as it looks. In fact, commitments of organizers are somewhat interlocked in her case. Most of her organizers are committed to former president Joseph Estrada and with the re-building of the JEEP NI ERAP, a considerable number of organizers are surely not supportive of her. So, it is still fussy how she’ll be able to counter a stronger Mar Roxas machinery.

Loren is not an Erap. Erap’s political endorsement is infectious; its a sure winner. Loren has not been proven in this department. What Manny Villar needs is someone who can transfer some of the magic to his to be able to counter Noynoy or a Chiz Escudero.

And if you look, Loren shares the same constituency as Villar’s. Is that good? No. Villar can cover enough ground without Loren, if you look at it. Can Loren do the same thing? No, simply because Loren does not have the logistics of a Villar. So, who benefits from the tandem? It is no other than the political prostitute.

Korina Sanchez, erstwhile fiance of Senator Mar Roxas, is again on the warpath. After Mar lost the Liberal Party nomination, Korina went on a rampage. She first engaged Inquirer columnist Conrad de Quiros, accusing him of disparaging Mar thru his daily column. Then, she trained her guns against Senator Kiko Pangilinan, practically accusing the senator of kawalang utang na loob.

I thought that that was the last of Korina’s outburst. However, today, I chanced upon Atty. Marichu Lambino’s blog, with a glaring scoop on Korina Sanchez’ letter to the ABS-CBN management, asking for RG Cruz’s head.

RG Cruz, one of the most active traditional journalist in the web and a colleague here at FilipinoVoices, is being accused by Korina of writing negative remarks against her in his Facebook account. Read the letter over at Lambino’s blog and you’ll sense how bitter and acerbic Korina is.

She virtually described RG Cruz as a relative unknown, a guy with dubious fashion taste and with a cloak and dagger personality. To my mind, Korina is entitled to comment on RG Cruz’s fashion sense. That’s her right.

But, to ask for that poor guy’s head over some personal remarks over Facebook reflects the true nature of Korina as a domineering mayordoma in that household called Kapamilya channel.

RG Cruz is entitled to his own opinions and views. For Korina to stifle his right to free expression shows you how stupid Korina is. Let me rephrase this—it shows how fake Korina is.

She demands that government respects every right of each and every citizen, when deep down inside her lurks a dictator ready to pounce on hapless journalists like RG Cruz and Conrad de Quiros. It’s downright okey if Korina just wrote a letter to RG Cruz asking him why he thinks about her that way. But, for her to use her “enormous powers and influence” and breath down on this guy just because of what he believes in, that’s too much.

I thank God that He allowed Noynoy to snatch the Liberal Party nomination away from Mar. Kung hindi, baka naging accessory pa tayo in bringing to the palace, another Imelda Marcos.

Kris Aquino cries beside her brother Noynoy during Cory's necro rites

Kris Aquino vowed to work hard to generate funds for his brother Noynoy’s presidential campaign. Today, Noynoy announced his intention to run and his act has thrown a monkey wrench in the Philippine political scene. Noynoy is reportedly reluctant but after a retreat, decided to heed the so-called “people’s call” for him to run for the presidency.

Kris said that the Aquino family will support Noynoy’s bid. And they want to contribute to Noynoy’s campaign kitty to lessen Noynoy’s dependence on third party contributions.

By the way, there were rumours that Mar Roxas’ fiancee Korina Sanchez is angry with Kris for supporting her boyfriend’s political nemesis, Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan. Remember that it was Kiko who led Liberal Party members from supporting Mar’s bid and publicly, Korina is angry with the Pangilinans.

Korina, some say, is also reportedly angry with Kris for siding with the Pangilinans. Is Korina still harboring ill-feelings for what had happened to her soon-to-be husband? Is Korina still bitter with what happened?

Sacrificing a personal ambition is never easy. It entails a great deal of steely will and courage to do so.

Honestly, I felt a tinge of sadness when I witnessed the event of Mar’s declaration at Club Filipino. When he dropped the bombshell, I felt that it was too early. Mar was affected by the treachery of organizations who once gave him his support. Mar may have felt betrayed by the promises of those political hangers-on and opportunists who see the glint of money what with a billionaire running for the top post.

Mar will be missed.

There’s a rising groundswell of support for Noynoy to run for the highest post. But, there are some, like me, who doubts this, simply because I hate reruns. Sometimes, reruns don’t really turn out the way we want it to be.

For example, do we expect Noynoy to behave like his mother or father? If we do, we’re in for a disappointment. Noynoy might have royal blood, but he’s no Cory. Or Ninoy.

Okey, some would say, but he’s better than Mar. Mar is bland, like burgers in McDonald’s while Noynoy, well, he’s like Jollibee. Noynoy is like his father, with glasses, while Mar does not smoke like his father Gerry.

Yesterday, Mar and Noynoy met to discuss who deserves the Liberal Party presidential nomination. Mar thinks he’s the man, since he already spent quite a fortune with all those infomercials. While Noynoy is sitting pretty in some corner, spending nary a dime, while such good men like Ed Roces goes around town calling for signatures.

Like Erap says “the presidency is destiny”. Yep, I believe that. Cory once proved that, when she, an ordinary housewife, became president. Is Noynoy destined to become president? And does this depend on the Liberal Party? I guess not.

Noynoy can always bolt out of the party and form his own. Good that Sonia Roco’s Aksyon Demokratiko and Ed Panlilio’s group as well as Harvey Keh’s Kaya Natin! movement already threw their support behind Noynoy. Mar only has the Akbayan on his side, but probably he’ll lose it once Noynoy starts to gun his election machinery. Are we seeing a third force? Maybe.

If all these groups converge behind Noynoy, that would probably give Erap some headaches. But, all of these things latch on grassroots organization. Erap has some formidable territories. Villarhas one too. Chiz, well, he’s building one, but he’s sure to get second spot behind Erap. Talk about trapo politics.

If Noynoy wins, this will be the very first time that a third force will do that. That would spur other movements to cash in and maybe, just maybe, we will have a totally changed and different political situation in 2013.

Now, there seems to be a resurgence of the Erap magic since the former president has consistently shown resiliency in ratings game. His ratings are rising and could overtake Villar’s as what some analysts say. Erap has broken into the 20 plus percentage levels and stands to actually gain some more percentage points in the weeks to come. While his rivals, particularly Mar Roxas, continues to slide further down the ratings game despite massive ads and propaganda campaigns.

It seems that Mar’s grassroots and even his hold over the ABC classes is splitting and benefitting Erap’s, Villar’s and to some extent, Chiz. Mar Roxas is losing considerable ground support, probably due to a lot of factors, namely organizational support and poor messaging. The Liberal Party should admit that Mar is a losing proposition since he faces two very formidable challenges in his campaign: lack of a solid machinery and a plateau-ing support base.

Having said that Erap stands to gain most from Mar Roxas’ eventual diminution, since Mar enjoys some support from the D class, but weak in the ABC class and E class. If Erap merges his party with that of Chiz’s, he may eventually overtake Villar who enjoys silent support from some administration partymembers. That automatically gives Erap at least half of Chiz’s ABC constituency and probably all of his C-D class constituency.

Now, is the Lakas-KAMPI CMD still a major force to contend with and do they have the strength to “neutralize” an expected Erap victory? I doubt it since like the Liberal Party, Lakas KAMPI CMD is now slowly breaking up. The touted “organizational strength” of the party is crumbling under the sheer weight of perceptions of illegitimacy. Now, will a De Castro campaign change their fate? I sincerely doubt it since considerable ground has already been lost due to the “indecisiveness” of De Castro. De Castro’s natural constituency is slowly being eaten up by the aggressive organizational onslaught of Erap’s JEEP NI ERAP.

Fortunes could change however, if Villar chooses to coalesce with De Castro under the Nacionalista NOT under LAKAS-KAMPI CMD. That, in itself, is a stronger counterforce against Erap. But, will it be enough to secure victory?

Honestly, I doubt it. Let’s prepare for an Erap restoration this early.

Senator Noynoy As President

After spending so much on advertising and propaganda, Senator Mar Roxas is on the verge of losing the party nomination as standard bearer. A report of TV Patrol World indicated a very serious split between the camps of Roxas and Senator Benigno NoyNoy Aquino. Obviously, there’s a movement to draft Noynoy as the party’s standard bearer and this is not a good news for Mar, who, for the past few months, has been campaigning hard in the cities and provinces throughout the Philippines. This “NoyNoy for President” movement is splitting the Liberal Party in the middle, and this, frankly, does not augur well for the party as a whole.

For one, this shows extreme weakness, exploitable by both rival opposition groups and the administration itself who does not want Mar to run for the highest post. Mar is caught in the middle of a political maelstrom which tends to blow him over.

Mar has to exhibit resoluteness and should cull party members over his side. Yet, it seems that history might yet repeat itself in the case of Mar since not all Liberal Party members are solidly behind him.

It is understandable since Mar’s ratings are not entirely desirable despite a massive ads attack especially since even in the ABC group, Mar just got 8% of this class, a far cry from the 30% of Chiz and the 28% of Villar. Mar got a third place finish even in the Visayas and ranked consistently poor in Mindanao and the rest of Luzon. These survey results are clearly against a Mar Roxas-led Liberal Party presidential campaign.

Mar’s poor showing could affect his party coffers since big ticket funders look at these things very seriously. With a debilitated coffers, the entire party would surely be affected given that local and even senatorial candidates rely on funding via their national party affiliation. A weak showing could also affect the further political network buildup for the party, leading to poll defeats.

Seems like the political season is upon us despite persistent doubts as to the sincerity of the Arroyo administration’s intention of really managing the 2010 elections. Candidates for various posts, particularly those still working for Mrs. Arroyo, have spent close to P250 million just for infomercials alone. This does not include their expenses building their grassroots networks.

For all its worth, this exercise in democracy is contributing to the economic stability of our country. It created hundreds of jobs. It spurred growth in provinces, towns and cities. And it again brought growth to various industries and small and medium-sized enterprises.

If we analyze the total expenditures of these candidates, from those aspiring for national and local posts, the economy already reaped close to a billion pesos already. This is good for the economy. Expect this to continue up to May 2010.

Based on the latest surveys, former president Joseph Estrada is now top of the heap for the presidential post, followed by billionaire Senator Manny Villar. It seems like Erap is really running while Villar has already intimated his desire to field a complete slate for the elections. Mar Roxas, meanwhile, has slipped down the survey game, with just 9 percent followed by Senator Loren Legarda. Chiz Escudero’s ratings remain very consistent within the 18-19 percent. Seems like his ratings already plateaued.

Roxas needs a “miracle” to overtake Erap. While if Villar continues his campaign, he might yet spring a surprise. What is very relevant at this juncture is the size of one’s campaign machinery. That will spell a very big difference in winning or losing this elections.