Growing Regional Threat

A US spy plane crashed in the town of Pikit, North Cotabato in the region of Mindanao, Philippines last October 18. Also, reports show an increasing number of US troops arriving into Mindanao. This suggests one thing–is the US government changing its policy in engaging Bangsamoro rebels in the conflict-laden Mindanao?

The US embassy has not issued any statement on this. Evidently, this shows that US military continued support of the AFP in its battles against the MILF ground commanders.

US intervention in low-intensity conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region is nothing new. Since the 1950’s, US direct intervention has been documented. Understandably, US defense interests include Mindanao, since, earlier posts suggest that it has direct implications on the overall global anti-terror campaigns.

The question is—what will Barack Obama do in relation to the escalating war in Mindanao? Will Obama increase US defense spending to combat the Bangsamoro rebels? Or will defense spending remain the same?

Will the US continue its mediator role in the conflict or will it increase its military interventionist role? All indications point to increased military intervention, since, analysis suggest a further escalation and possible spillover to the rest of the region.

The possibility of Mindanao turning into a serious regional flashpoint remains very big. If some MILF commanders successfully oust MILF Chairman Murad from his seat, the prospect of the organisation entering into peace talks is doomed. It would, however, secure victory for the MILF on the long term; yet, victory could send the wrong signal to the world, a signal that could embolden other terrorist organisations around the globe.

Simply put–what the US does’nt need right now is another success story of the extremists. The US is losing the war on terror in almost all fronts–Somalia, Afghanistan, and Iraq. A victory in Mindanao by Islamist-oriented rebel groups in Mindanao could increase morale in other flashpoints, most especially in Southern Thailand which remains as a hotbed of Islamist secessionism.

A victory could spill-over Thailand, strengthen JI in Indonesia and Malaysia and even affect Singapore. China could also be affected since there is a growing militaristic Islamism there.

A weak handling of this Mindanao problem by the US could tip the balance of power in the region, what with the new orientation of the new administration–from an anti-terror standpoint to economic orientation.

Barack Obama’s pronouncement that his main priority would be solving the US sub-prime crisis first shows a lack of understanding on the implications of decreasing US role in the global war on terror.

More than lip-service, Barack Obama should maintain full support on the war on terror; otherwise, he might find his government looking in a totally different world political map in the next few years.

Another question—will Mindanao serve as Barack’s “Bay of Pigs” ? Since Barack has this propensity of positioning himself as the “incarnation” of US President John F. Kennedy, will he also encounter the same problem and commit the same grievous mistake his predecessor did in his time? More on this.

And it seems that peace is slowly dissipating, as both the GRP and MILF sides continue stone-walling, with the GRP telling the MILF that it would not sign the agreement under its present form, indicating that it wants a re-negotiation. While on the part of the MILF, it believes the present MOA is the best option and will not go to the peace table for another round of talks. 

Such a situation may, indeed, lead to a full-scale war, which as what New Philippine Revolution wrote could turn into a very nasty one, given that the conflict has a wider area of coverage than Erap’s anti-Muslim war back in 2000. What we must avoid is a further escalation which could turn the entire Mindanao into a magnet for external participation of regional terror groups. This early, there are signs of bombings in key cities, such as Zamboanga, which could be the handiwork of the Jemaah Islamiya.

This early, some hailed this as a landmark deal which could probably end the Moro secessionist struggle in Mindanao. Others, like traditional Moro families and wealthy Christian landowners, have registered their protests. They see the landmark deal as property encroachments which could potentially lead to more violence at the onset.

As PinoyObserver wrote some entries ago, this is just a start of the Bangsamoro struggle because after this, I expect an escalation of violence between and among groups with various interests in Mindanao. Expect the Mindanaoans to wage war against each other, starting with an interacine conflict between Moros themselves. This is expected since Mindanao has been under the grip of traditional “royal families” and Christian land owners and caciques whose interests will definitely be affected and even end should this deal pushes through.

There will be a period of great instability and turmoil, but this should not hinder nor discourage Arroyo from signing this deal. For the costs of such turmoil rests in the shoulders of the MILF, not the government. The MILF will have a greater struggle ahead of it, owning to the firepower that these groups have ranged against it. The MILF should persevere and should not deter from the reason of its formation—the creation of an Independent Bangsamoro State.

In general, the deal will greatly benefit not only those under the BJE but also the entire nation. The potential of foreign investments from both China, the Middle East, India, the United States and Europe is there. Mindanao is underdeveloped. With a new government to be administered by the Bangsamoro themselves, anything is possible there.

Now, the Bangsamoro can build its own megacities, create jobs, create opportunities for everyone. The Bangsamoro can build investment sites. The territory to be given to them has enormous potential for development and growth. The area is rich in mineral and oil resources which, if developed, could potentially increase investment and further grow and modernize the Bangsamoro state.

However, this is just a small step. The growth and development of the BJE will take years before we finally enjoy its fruits.  For now, the Bangsamoro People will have to prepare themselves against those who don’t want progress. These groups have enslaved the Bangsamoro people for centuries. The enslavement have kept Mindanao underdeveloped and poor. For the Bangsamoro People to end it, it would need the Help of God to shackle those chains that have impoverished its people.

by Patricio Mangubat (newphilrevolution.blogspot.com)

A brewing revolt in the South

While we are so engrossed with the food crisis, a revolution is a-brewing in Mindanao.

Yesterday, a band of Islamic militants staged a rally in Sulu, one of the Southernmost islands of the Philippines. The rallyists called for independence from Manila, the seat of power. Police were unable to resist the militants, who carry long knives tucked in their waists.

A mockery of Arroyo

Obviously, this is a mockery of the administration of Mrs. Arroyo. One, it was a defiant act of rebellion. That action was a direct contravention of existing Philippine laws. The rallyists should have been arrested for inciting to rebellion and/or secession since they are calling for independence of Sulu. Police were helpless in arresting the militants, calling the incident just a way to let off steam.

Was that just a way to let off steam? No.

That incident was plain and simple rebellion. If it happened here in Manila, the rallyists could have been arrested, even mauled by police. But no. That one occurred in Mindanao, and our cops are afraid shitless.

Bigger than a rally

Second, that act shows that Islamist are preparing for something bigger than a call for independence. It’s just a warning to Manila that Tausugs are again ready to go to war against them. Is Manila ready for war?

Obviously, Manila is ill prepared for another war in the South. That might cause Mrs. Arroyo’s quick downfall. Imagine a scenario where hundreds if not thousands of troops being killed in Sulu. Imagine another conflagration similar to the one which happened in the 1970’s where Marcos sent his troops to suicide missions in Mindanao.

Government peace panel adviser Jesus Dureza said it might take a while to implement the remaining unmet provisions of the MNLF peace pact. What Dureza meant is this–Manila is not that serious in really institutionalizing peace in Mindanao.

Talks are rife that former MNLF chairman Nur Misuari will join the MNLF panel in OIC talks in Jeddah. Will it appease the Tausugs? No. Remember that only a few weeks ago, Nur has been replaced by a government factotum in the person of Ampatuan. Ampatuan has zero credibility among his people. The entire MNLF Central Committee does not have the personality to influence the remaining MNLF fighters toe the government line. 

What about the MILF? Reports say, the biggest Bangsamoro group is split into different factions, due to the inability of MILF Chairman Al Haj Murad to maintain organizational cohesion. Many young MILF fighters vowed not to follow Murad should he proceed with peace talks with Manila. Reports say as many as 3,000 young fighters will continue waging war with Manila even if both sides sign a peace pact.

Revolt could break Gloria’s backbone

A revolution in Mindanao could take its toll on this administration, both politically and economically. It could break the backbone of Mrs. Arroyo who cling to power in the barest of threads. Remember that her troops have suffered innumerable defeats in the battlefield against Muslim fighters in the South. The once-feared Marines have been decimated in that area. If war breaks out, how will government explain the expected deaths and casualties of government troops there? How will it cope with the exodus of thousands of families? Is government logistically prepared to face this eventuality?

Effects in the regional anti-terror campaign

How will events happening in Mindanao impact on the regional anti-terror campaign? Reports on the ground show that more and more Bangsamoros are being influenced by radical Islamist thinking. A report by Maria Resa of ABS-CBN revealed that a new group has been formed which diametrically pursues the Jemaah Islamiya philosophy, that is, the creation of a Pan Islamic Sultanate.

This new group, allegedly being funded by the global Islamist organisation Al-Qaeda, could be funding the escalation of hostilities in the South. Remember that anti-terror groups have been unable to break the financial backbone of JI and it continues to spread its tentacles in the region. Left unattended, this new group could pose a serious security threat in the region, more dangerous and lethal than its predecessors.

US intervention in Bangsamoro affairs

A few months back, US Ambassador Kristie Kenney visited the main MILF camp in Mindanao. This is the first time that a representative of the US government came to visit the MILF. Analysts say this could lead the way for the de-listing of the MILF as a terrorist organisation. Some analysts however say that it was a blatant “in-your-face” act by the US against Gloria, which, fortunately, did not result to anything serious other than a note verbale.

What that visit meant was very simple–it shows that the US is very serious in addressing the root causes of rebellion in Mindanao. It wants to participate as a third party mediator. Malaysia has been a long-time participant in the talks. Yet, nothing substantial has resulted so far with Malaysia at the helm of the talks. 

The US has a substantial strategic defense interest in Mindanao. One, Mindanao has been known as a safe haven for terrorists. Two, most of the suicide bombers who concocted the 9/11 attacks and the World Trade Center bombings came from Mindanao prior to planing to the mainland. And three, in the interest of regional security, Mindanao is placed very high in the agenda of the US State department since most areas being controlled by the MILF provide training to would-be JI fighters in the region. The Philippines ranks as the training and r&r (rest and recreation) area of the JI, followed by Malaysia and Indonesia  as recruitment centers and Singapore as the financial hub.

A war in the South, especially in Sulu, would destroy all institutional efforts being implemented there by regional de-escalation experts. It could likewise, provide JI an opportunity to train their fighters in actual combat. 

Net–a war in Mindanao could spark a regional war between the JI and anti-terror troops. It could endanger regional security. Is the region prepared to sacrifice its security because of Arroyo’s inability to talk peace with the Bangsamoro?